The race to develop autonomous vehicles is heating up, with Tesla at the forefront. However, a former Tesla employee and now CEO of rival electric vehicle manufacturer Lucid Group, Peter Rawlinson, has thrown cold water on Tesla’s ambitious timeline for robotaxis. In a recent interview, Rawlinson asserted that fully autonomous vehicles, like those envisioned by Tesla, are unlikely to become widely available until the 2030s.
Rawlinson, known for his previous work on the Tesla Model S, compared the pursuit of true self-driving technology to refining gold to an incredibly high purity. “It’s like refining gold to 99.9999 percent—the first few nines are easy, but it’s that last 0.01 percent. I can’t see it happening till the 2030s,” he explained.
His skepticism stems from the inherent complexity of achieving true autonomy. While Lucid boasts a strong engineering foundation, Rawlinson admitted that the company has faced its own challenges in developing autonomous driving features. “I’m personally taking charge of this, and we’re really advancing this now at an accelerated pace,” he stated. However, he stressed the immense difficulty of the final stages in getting full autonomous vehicles ready for public roads.
Rawlinson’s comments come at a pivotal time, just after Tesla’s much-hyped Robotaxi Day, where the company showcased its Cybercab, a dedicated robotaxi designed to operate without a human driver. This event further solidified Tesla’s commitment to autonomous driving, but Rawlinson’s prediction casts a shadow over the company’s aggressive timeline.
This latest exchange adds another layer to the ongoing rivalry between Tesla and Lucid. Rawlinson has previously taken subtle jabs at Tesla and its CEO Elon Musk, even disputing Musk’s claims about his contributions to the Model S. During the interview, Rawlinson praised Lucid’s technology, claiming it surpasses Tesla’s in terms of battery efficiency and range. He even suggested that Tesla has become distracted, a potential reference to Musk’s recent foray into politics.
While Rawlinson’s prediction may seem pessimistic, it’s worth noting that a recent survey by J.D. Power revealed that consumers who haven’t experienced robotaxis have low confidence in autonomous vehicles. This lack of public trust could indeed hinder the widespread adoption of self-driving technology, potentially making Rawlinson’s 2030s timeline a more realistic possibility.
The future of autonomous driving remains uncertain, with the timeline for widespread adoption still up for debate. Whether Tesla can overcome the challenges and deliver on its ambitious robotaxi plans or whether Rawlinson’s prediction holds true, the next decade will be pivotal in shaping the landscape of self-driving technology.
