A tragic maritime accident unfolded off the northern coast of Sicily on August 19, claiming the lives of one person and leaving six others missing, including prominent figures like British tech tycoon Mike Lynch and a Morgan Stanley executive. The incident involved the sinking of a luxury yacht, the Bayesian, a 56-meter (184-foot) vessel flying the British flag. The Italian coast guard reported that the yacht sank in the darkness shortly before 5 am (0300 GMT) off the port of Porticello, near Palermo. The cause of the sinking was attributed to a “violent storm” that struck the area.
The coast guard acknowledged that bad weather had been predicted but emphasized its intensity exceeded expectations. Local accounts suggested a powerful waterspout, a type of sea whirlwind, might have played a role. Fisherman Andrea Carini, describing the event to Reuters, stated, “It was a strange thing.” The Bayesian was at anchor with its sails lowered when the storm hit, with another yacht, the 42-meter Sir Robert Baden Powell, moored nearby.
The Sir Robert Baden Powell managed to weather the storm after its captain, Karsten Borner, initiated the engine to maintain control of the vessel and prevent a collision with the sinking Bayesian. Borner, however, expressed uncertainty about whether the Bayesian crew had managed to activate their engines, speculating, “I don’t think they did things wrong, I think they were surprised by the power of the storm.” He added, “I only know that they went flat with the mast on the water and that they sank in two minutes.” Borner described the storm as “very violent, very intense,” characterized by “a lot of water and I think a turning system like a tornado.”
The swift sinking of the Bayesian raised questions among maritime experts. Andrea Ratti, a professor of nautical design at Milan Polytechnic University, highlighted the unusual speed of the sinking, suggesting it could only happen if the yacht took in a substantial amount of water. He theorized that broken or smashed portholes, windows, or other openings might have allowed water to rush in, potentially caused by the waterspout. Media reports have also speculated that a major hatch might have been inadvertently left open. However, a British industry expert, speaking anonymously, contested this notion, asserting that it should have taken hours for the Bayesian to fill with enough water to sink. He deemed the swift demise “incomprehensible” and declared, “I don’t think the industry has ever faced anything like this. It’s a horror story.”
Diver Marco Tilotta of the fire department, speaking to the Italian daily Il Messaggero, described the wreckage as “apparently intact,” devoid of “gashes, no signs of impact.” Nevertheless, only half of the hull is visible to divers. The Bayesian, constructed in 2008 by Perini Navi, a renowned Italian luxury yacht builder, had garnered awards for its design. Notably, it featured the world’s tallest aluminium mast, measuring a staggering 72 meters.
Professor Ratti, addressing the yacht’s tall mast, emphasized that it is not inherently a vulnerability during storms. He was echoed by structural engineer Filippo Mattioni, who also favored the “open hatch” theory for the ingress of water. Both experts expressed skepticism about a broken mast, which could have inflicted significant damage by striking the hull. Captain Borner, in support of this view, stated, “If the mast had been broken they wouldn’t have capsized.”
The Bayesian was equipped with a retractable keel, a fin-like structure under the hull that contributes to boat stability and acts as a counterweight for the mast. Ratti and Mattioni questioned whether the yacht had been anchored with the keel raised, which would have reduced its depth underwater from around 10 to 4 meters, potentially compromising its stability. Ratti theorized that strong winds might have caused the boat to oscillate wildly, resembling a pendulum, placing substantial strain on the mast. However, he cautioned that even if the mast broke, “this by itself is not enough to justify the sinking.”
Prosecutors in the nearby town of Termini Imerese have initiated an investigation into the disaster. The investigation, likely to span months, aims to shed light on the circumstances surrounding the sinking and establish the cause of the tragedy. The world awaits the findings of the investigation, which will hopefully provide answers to the perplexing questions surrounding the rapid demise of the Bayesian and the fate of those still missing.
