Despite global efforts to curb emissions, a new report reveals a stark reality: human-produced methane sources have surged by 20% over the last two decades, pushing atmospheric concentrations to record highs. The Global Methane Budget 2024, a comprehensive analysis published in the journal Earth System Science Data, paints a concerning picture, highlighting the significant threat methane poses to our climate goals.
The report, produced by the Global Carbon Project, an international coalition of scientists, reveals that human activities now account for at least two-thirds of global methane emissions. These emissions have driven atmospheric methane concentrations to 1,923 parts per billion in 2023—a level 2.6 times higher than pre-industrial times and the highest concentration in at least 800,000 years. This trend, according to the researchers, “cannot continue if we are to maintain a habitable climate,” and could jeopardize the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C global warming limit.
Methane, a potent greenhouse gas, lingers in the atmosphere for a shorter time than carbon dioxide but packs a much more powerful punch. It warms the atmosphere nearly 90 times faster than carbon dioxide during its first 20 years after release. This makes addressing methane emissions crucial for achieving climate goals, particularly as there are currently no technologies capable of directly removing it from the atmosphere.
The report identifies the world’s five largest methane emitters: China (16%), India (9%), the US (7%), Brazil (6%), and Russia (5%). Agriculture, including livestock and rice cultivation, remains the leading source, contributing 40% of global anthropogenic methane emissions. Fossil fuel activity accounts for 34%, waste handling for 19%, and biomass burning for 7%. Increased activity in developing regions and intensified fossil fuel exploitation have fueled emissions growth in these sectors.
The report also sheds light on the growing influence of human activity on natural methane sources. Previously, all emissions from wetlands, lakes, ponds, and rivers were categorized as natural. The new report, however, explores the increasing human impact on these sources. For instance, reservoirs built by humans contribute an estimated 30 million tonnes of methane emissions per year, as submerged organic matter decomposes and releases methane. Scientists estimate that roughly one-third of wetland and freshwater methane emissions in recent years were influenced by human-caused factors, including reservoir construction, fertilizer runoff, wastewater, land use changes, and rising temperatures.
Despite significant international commitments to reduce methane emissions, such as the Global Methane Pledge signed by 150 countries aiming for a 30% reduction by 2030, the report reveals a concerning lack of progress. Satellite data show that methane emissions increased by an additional 5% between 2020 and 2023. China, southern Asia, and the Middle East saw the most significant increases, driven by emissions from coal mining in China and oil and gas extraction in the Middle East. While some regions, including the United States and possibly Australia, appear to have decreased methane emissions from human activities over the past two decades, the overall trend remains deeply troubling.
If current trends persist, the report warns that meeting the targets set in the Global Methane Pledge is unlikely. The observed emission growth aligns with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s most pessimistic greenhouse gas scenarios, potentially leading to a global temperature increase exceeding 3°C above pre-industrial times by the end of the century. This underscores the urgent need for strengthened global efforts to curb methane emissions, particularly in sectors like agriculture, fossil fuels, and waste. Failing to act now would have dire consequences for our planet’s future.
