Analysts forecast a modest increase in Mexican headline inflation for the first half of April, reaching 4.48%, compared to 4.37% recorded in the second half of March. However, the closely watched core inflation, excluding volatile energy and food prices, is projected to decline to 4.39% early in April, marking its lowest level since May 2021. Mexico’s overall inflation rate has been on the rise since bottoming out at 4.25% in late October, remaining above the Bank of Mexico’s objective of 3%, with a margin of one percentage point. The central bank reduced its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 11% in March, but Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath has suggested that the bank’s governing board may maintain it for longer than anticipated. This decision is driven by persistent inflation concerns, echoed by other board members. Weekly data indicates that consumer prices fell 0.03%, while core inflation rose 0.16% compared to the previous two-week period. A recent survey by Citibanamex revealed that a substantial portion of the market anticipates the Bank of Mexico to maintain its benchmark rate at its May meeting. The official inflation data for the first half of April will be released on Wednesday by Mexico’s national statistics agency.
Mexican Inflation Likely Rises in Early April, Core Inflation Eases
