In the historic Sunday election, Mexicans will cast their votes amidst significant considerations of gender representation, democratic principles, and the influence of populism. However, the democratic process is overshadowed by the looming threat of cartel violence, underscoring the challenges facing the nation as it charts its path forward.
According to the National Electoral Institute, “With two women leading the contest, Mexico will likely elect its first female president – a major step in a country long marked by its ‘macho’ culture.”
The election will also be the biggest in the country’s history, with more than 20,000 congressional and local positions up for grabs.
Escalating violence during local election campaigns in Mexico has been a major concern, with criminal groups exploiting these elections to assert dominance and resulting in a surge of bloodshed. Tragically, over 20 political candidates have lost their lives this year amid the escalating violence.
The political backdrop, including President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s legacy and Mexico’s intricate ties with the United States, only deepens the complexity of the situation.
Candidates in Mexico’s Presidential Elections
Claudia Sheinbaum
Sheinbaum, the former mayor of Mexico City, has held a significant lead in polls for months. Backed by President López Obrador’s ruling Morena party, she pledges to continue his populist agenda. Trained as a scientist, Sheinbaum faces the challenge of asserting her identity while emphasizing her ties to López Obrador. Despite lacking his charisma, she aims to navigate this delicate balance to secure victory.
Candidate Xóchitl Gálvez
Gálvez, an opposition senator and tech entrepreneur, leads a coalition of parties traditionally lacking common ground, except for their recent opposition to López Obrador. As a fierce critic of the outgoing president, Gálvez is known for engaging in verbal sparring but has struggled to generate significant enthusiasm for her Strength and Heart for Mexico coalition.
Jorge Álvarez Máynez
The third candidate, Jorge Álvarez Máynez, a former federal congressman from the Citizen Movement party, remains relatively unknown. Despite appealing to younger voters, Álvarez Máynez has struggled to gain significant traction in the election.
Violence in the Campaign
Mexican President López Obrador’s “hugs not bullets” policy, aimed at addressing the underlying societal factors contributing to violence, has faced criticism as cartels and criminal groups have expanded their influence. Despite promises to reduce violence, homicide rates have remained high. López Obrador’s reluctance to confront criminal organizations has allowed them to thrive, and activists accuse his government of downplaying the extent of Mexico’s forcibly disappeared population ahead of the election.
Criminal groups view elections, especially local ones, as an opportunity to seize power, resulting in turf wars and violence. According to tracking by the human rights organization Data Civica, at least 145 individuals with political ties have been murdered by organized crime this year alone. Violence has been particularly severe in states where criminal groups are fighting for territory, like Chiapas and Guerrero in the south and Michoacan in central Mexico.
