The southwest monsoon has begun its retreat from northwest India, starting with west Rajasthan and Kutch on Monday. This marks the end of the rainy season, a week later than the usual withdrawal date. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has stated that conditions are favorable for the monsoon to withdraw from more areas in the next 24 hours, including parts of West Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, and Gujarat.
Despite the retreat, heavy rainfall is expected in several regions. The IMD forecasts very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall over coastal and north interior Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Goa during the next three days. Central, east, and northeast India are also expected to experience heavy rainfall between Tuesday and Friday.
This delayed withdrawal, particularly with the continued heavy rainfall, could negatively impact maturing crops ready for harvest, posing risks to inflation. It could also delay the sowing of rabi crops, which are typically sown in the winter.
This monsoon season has been marked by unusual weather patterns. India experienced four depressions this monsoon season, twice the usual number. Meteorologists attribute this to climate change, which is altering weather patterns worldwide.
The monsoon season is crucial for India. It typically arrives on the Kerala coast by June 1st and starts retreating around September 17th. This four-month season delivers about 75% of India’s annual rainfall, which is essential for agriculture, replenishing water reservoirs, and meeting the country’s power demands. Over half of India’s arable land depends on rain, and the agricultural sector remains a major employment source.
Despite a slow start, this year’s monsoon brought abundant rainfall, supporting the sowing of summer crops. However, September witnessed excessive rainfall. India has received 5% above-normal rainfall at 878.1 mm this monsoon.
While the monsoon retreat has begun, the full withdrawal will take time. The IMD predicts widespread rain in Gujarat and western India this week. A fresh low-pressure system is expected to develop over the west-central Bay of Bengal by Tuesday, which will likely bring more rain to the southern peninsular regions, including Marathwada, Vidarbha, coastal Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Rayalaseema, Kerala, and Mahe over the next two days.
Looking ahead, the IMD has noted that La Niña is expected to emerge later this month and persist until the end of 2024. La Niña, characterized by cooler sea surface temperatures, typically occurs every 3-5 years and can bring increased rainfall, potentially leading to floods and distinct weather patterns. The Indian Ocean Dipole, another monsoon influencer, is forecast to remain neutral for the remainder of the season.
