On April 17th, 2024, Myanmar’s military government spokesperson announced that the country’s most popular leader, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, and former president U Win Myint had been moved from prison to house arrest. This development coincided with the release of over 30,000 political prisoners as part of the Thingyan festival celebrations.
However, despite these seemingly positive steps, the political and security situation in Myanmar remains grim. Three years after the military coup, the country has descended into an ongoing civil war, with armed clashes between the Resistance, comprising ethnic armed groups and people’s militia units, and the junta’s forces. The junta has responded with aerial bombardments of villages and towns, exacerbating the suffering of the civilian population.
The Resistance has made significant gains in recent months, capturing several key towns and cities, including Laukkaing, Paletwa, Ramree, and Myawaddy. The fall of these strategic locations represents a major setback for the Tatmadaw, Myanmar’s military. Fighting continues unabated in several parts of the country, particularly in the sensitive and strategically important Rakhine state. All eyes are now on the port town of Sittwe, whose capture by the Resistance would be a significant blow to the military government.
The deteriorating security situation has prompted India to withdraw its consulate from Sittwe and relocate it to Yangon, highlighting the grave concerns over the stability of the region. The editor-in-chief of Mizzima News, Soe Myint, emphasized the profound impact the ethnic armed organizations are having on Myanmar’s internal dynamics, asserting that the country will no longer be the same as it was before 2021.
The military’s strength has dwindled significantly over the past three years of fighting, with its personnel numbers dropping from approximately 370,000 to 150,000, of which only 70,000 are combat soldiers, according to Ye Myo Hein of the United States Institute of Peace (USIP). This has led the junta to impose conscription, compelling young people to join the army, resulting in a mass exodus of youth to foreign lands.
The ongoing conflict has had devastating consequences for Myanmar, with countless lives lost, people displaced, and the economy severely damaged. The prospects for conciliation and a peaceful resolution remain uncertain. Neither the military nor the Resistance is willing to consider dialogue at this stage, and both sides seem incapable of achieving a decisive victory.
Three potential scenarios are likely to unfold: a protracted civil war with ongoing bloodshed and suffering; a major military defeat that could change the balance of power; or a drastic decision by the junta, such as releasing Aung San Suu Kyi, that could reshuffle the political landscape.
Myanmar’s internal challenges can only be resolved through the efforts of its people, but external assistance is crucial. Endeavors by the UN Security Council, the UN Secretary General’s special envoy, Japan’s special envoy Yohei Sasakawa, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have failed to achieve tangible results.
China has emerged as the most active mediator, facilitating a ceasefire in the Shan state along the Myanmar-China border. The new Thai government has expressed a desire to undertake similar efforts in the Myanmar-Thailand border region.
To break the impasse, a coordinated approach involving select ASEAN states and Myanmar’s five neighbors, including China, India, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Laos, is essential. These countries should agree on a comprehensive strategy to address the key political issues and facilitate a national dialogue. The agenda should include a cessation of fighting, delivery of humanitarian assistance, economic recovery, and the establishment of a federal democracy where the military withdraws from governance within a specified timeframe.
Reputable experts on Myanmar from the region have a vital role to play in assisting the governments of ASEAN states and Myanmar’s neighbors. Their understanding of Burmese history, national character, diversities, challenges, and potential can be invaluable in crafting a viable peace proposal. The concerned governments should then take up the baton and drive the process forward.
