As the Monday deadline approaches in the Alberta New Democrats leadership contest, Naheed Nenshi maintains a strong position as the potential winner. Members have until midnight on Monday to purchase a membership and cast their ballot on June 22 to determine the successor to Rachel Notley as NDP leader and head of the Opposition.
Nenshi, the former Calgary mayor, has attracted significant crowds to party events and has already convinced leadership rival Rakhi Pancholi to withdraw from the race and join his team. He is considered an outsider challenging party mainstays Sarah Hoffman and Kathleen Ganley.
Nenshi lacks a track record with the NDP but has campaigned on his brand of purple politics, a blend of conservative blue and liberal red. He has primarily focused on opposing Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party’s social policies and their conflicts with the federal government. Nenshi relies on party members to develop an agenda for the 2027 provincial election.
Despite Nenshi’s strong position, he still faces four other candidates. Hoffman, the former health minister, emphasizes that the race goes beyond initial membership sales and enters a “persuasion phase” after the deadline. Ganley, the former justice minister, acknowledges Nenshi’s lead but highlights the increase in her own membership sales. She believes the race remains open, with the party’s traditional support base in Edmonton potentially shifting.
Two other candidates, Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse and Gil McGowan, are considered long shots. They both expressed confidence in their ability to gain support with their ideas for the party’s future.
Political observers predict Nenshi’s victory if the vote were held immediately. However, they acknowledge that Hoffman and Ganley could potentially succeed if they raise doubts among members who have already purchased memberships for Nenshi, convincing them to change their minds or not vote at all.
The party plans to release an updated membership list on May 12th. In December, the NDP had over 16,000 members. The party executive director, Garett Spelliscy, stated that this leadership race will be determined by the largest membership in the Alberta NDP’s 62-year history. Rakhi Pancholi withdrew from the race in late March after observing a significant increase in memberships following Nenshi’s entry into the contest.
Experts believe Nenshi is in a strong position. Duane Bratt, a political scientist at Mount Royal University in Calgary, suggests that Hoffman or Ganley’s only chance of success is to sow doubt among Nenshi’s supporters and convince them to withdraw their votes or switch allegiance in the upcoming months. Lisa Young, a political scientist at the University of Calgary, anticipates that members who buy memberships by the deadline are unlikely to change their votes. She believes Nenshi has effectively secured the victory and is already considering his next challenge: uniting the party behind him.
