NATO’s 75th anniversary summit in Washington D.C. on July 9th arrives amidst a backdrop of rising global challenges and uncertainty about the alliance’s future direction. The summit will see leaders from 32 NATO member states gather, along with representatives from Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea, highlighting the growing diplomatic significance of the Indo-Pacific region. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg emphasized the importance of close collaboration with allies in the region, stating that the alliance must work closely with its friends in the Indo-Pacific as authoritarian actors align.
Founded in 1949 to provide collective defense against the Soviet Union, NATO now faces new threats and internal political dynamics that could shape its trajectory. A major concern hanging over the summit is the potential return of former US President Donald Trump, known for his critical stance on NATO. European diplomats are crafting contingency plans, worried that a Trump victory in the 2024 US presidential election could weaken US commitments to the alliance and undermine transatlantic unity.
The war in Ukraine is expected to dominate discussions at the summit. While Ukraine hopes for NATO membership, the alliance has not extended a formal invitation, opting for bilateral security deals and accelerated military aid transfers. Stoltenberg highlighted the importance of unity and deterrence, emphasizing the combined economic and military strength of NATO allies.
Outgoing NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg will hand over his role to former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who has called for European nations to adapt to political changes in Washington. Rutte has urged European nations to move beyond criticisms and work effectively with whoever leads the US.
NATO has made significant progress since the Madrid summit, enhancing defense and deterrence in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Allies have increased defense spending, modernized command structures, and integrated new members Finland and Sweden. The Washington summit will focus on ensuring the alliance is prepared for both immediate and protracted conflicts. NATO leaders will discuss the need for increased defense spending, personnel recruitment, and critical capabilities such as air and missile defense, cyber defense, and space-based systems.
US President Joe Biden, who has emphasized the importance of alliances, faces a potential challenge from Trump, whose previous term raised concerns about NATO’s future. Trump has criticized NATO as a burden on the US despite recent increases in defense spending by European allies. Biden has taken a contrasting approach, highlighting the strength of America’s alliances. Diplomats are aware that Trump might cut off military support to Ukraine, which has already faced delays due to political wrangling in Congress. Stoltenberg has been working to ensure the alliance itself leads in coordinating military assistance for Ukraine, rather than relying solely on the US. A proposed commitment of 40 billion euros per year in military aid to Ukraine aims to ensure continued support for the war-torn nation, even if Trump returns to power.
Political shifts in Europe, including the rise of far-right parties skeptical of NATO, add to the alliance’s challenges. Recent elections in France and gains by the far-right party under Marine Le Pen highlight this trend. However, there are also positive signs, such as Italy’s right-wing populist Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s strong support for NATO.
As NATO leaders gather in Washington, the array of issues they face includes strengthening defense and deterrence, ensuring continued support for Ukraine, and adapting to political changes both within the US and Europe. The summit is taking place at a critical juncture for European security, as Russia appears content to wait out the conflict.
