The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up to be an extraordinary one, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The agency is predicting an above-normal season, with a total of 17 to 25 named storms, of which 8 to 13 are likely to become hurricanes. Up to seven of these hurricanes could reach category three or higher, according to NOAA’s forecast. This prediction is based on a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, the developing La Niña in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and less wind shear. These factors all tend to favor tropical storm formation in the Atlantic.
NOAA says that this hurricane season has the potential for an above-normal West African monsoon, which can produce waves that seed some of the strongest and longest-lived hurricanes. With human-caused climate change increasing the risk of storm surges, too, the agency is urging coastal residents to be prepared for an active season.
Some scientists have argued that the traditional five-category Saffir-Simpson scale, developed more than 50 years ago, may not show the true power of the most muscular storms. Five monster storms in the Pacific since 2013 have had winds of 308 kilometers per hour or higher that would have put them in a new category. And though no Atlantic hurricane has reached this threshold yet, experts say as the world warms the environment for such a storm grows more conducive.
