Nvidia Earnings: What to Expect and How to Play the Market

Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) is set to report its highly anticipated earnings on Wednesday, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. As the undisputed leader in the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution, Nvidia’s results will be a critical indicator for the broader market, especially for those invested in the semiconductor and technology sectors. This high-profile market event presents both risk and opportunity. For traders looking to capitalize on Nvidia’s earnings without the direct exposure of single-stock volatility, ETFs with substantial Nvidia holdings offer an appealing alternative.

Wall Street has set an ambitious target for Nvidia this quarter, expecting revenue to hit $28.74 billion. This represents a staggering 17% increase from the previous quarter and an eye-popping 156% jump from the same quarter last year. Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise to 65 cents, up from 56 cents in the prior quarter and 21 cents in the same period last year.

Goldman Sachs’ semiconductor analyst, Toshiya Hari, is bullish on Nvidia’s prospects, predicting the company will surpass these already lofty expectations. Hari stated in a note this month, “We believe customer demand across the large Cloud Service Providers and enterprises is strong, and Nvidia’s robust competitive position in AI/accelerated computing remains intact.”

The driving force behind this optimism? Data center revenues and strong operating leverage. Hari highlights three key areas: robust demand for the H100 GPUs, the launch of volume shipments of the H200, and the ramp-up of Nvidia’s Ethernet-based networking product, Spectrum-X. These factors could fuel a significant earnings beat, potentially leading to upward revisions in EPS.

Shares of the AI tech giant are up 159% year to date, after surging by 239% in 2023. Nvidia’s stock has a history of sharp rallies post-earnings, with an average one-day boost of 9% over the past eight quarters and 7.1% over the last four.

For traders seeking exposure to Nvidia’s potential earnings-driven rally, here are 10 ETFs with the largest holdings in the stock:

| ETF Name | Nvidia Weight % | YTD Performance (%) |
|—|—|—|
| ProShares Ultra Semiconductors USD | 30.69% | 136% |
| Strive U.S. Semiconductor ETF (SHOC) | 29.54% | 19.2% |
| Simplify Volt RoboCar Disruption (VCAR) | 22.83% | 12.7% |
| VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) | 21.95% | 41.3% |
| The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) | 21.29% | 16.7% |
| Grizzle Growth ETF (DARP) | 20.32% | 13.9% |
| Franklin Focused Growth ETF (FFOG) | 18.07% | 26.4% |
| iShares Global Tech ETF (IXN) | 17.55% | 21.6% |
| iShares ESG Advanced MSCI USA ETF (USXF) | 16.05% | 22.4% |
| SoFi Select 500 ETF (SFY) | 15.96% | 20.5% |

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