Old Republic International: A Top Pick in the Multiline Insurance Sector

The multiline insurance sector is on an upward trajectory, fueled by several positive factors. Improved pricing strategies, cautious underwriting practices, and expanding exposure to new risks are all contributing to industry growth. This trend is reflected in the sector’s impressive year-to-date performance, with a 17.7% return, outpacing the Finance sector’s growth of 15.3%.

Furthermore, multiline insurers benefit from product diversification, which helps them mitigate concentration risk and boost retention rates. The rapid adoption of digital technologies is streamlining operations, while a favorable rate environment is driving investment income higher.

In this article, we focus on two leading multiline insurers: Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) and Old Republic International Corporation (ORI). Assurant, with a market capitalization of $10.26 billion, provides a range of business services that support, protect, and connect consumer purchases across North America, Latin America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Old Republic International, with a market capitalization of $9.21 billion, primarily operates in the United States and Canada, offering insurance underwriting and related services through its subsidiaries. Both companies are currently rated as Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

The diversified portfolios of multiline insurers provide a key advantage by lowering concentration risk. Life insurance operations benefit from increased demand for protection products, leading to higher sales and premium income. Meanwhile, the non-life insurance segment enjoys premium growth driven by better pricing and expanded coverage for intangible assets and cyber threats. Deloitte Insights points to the transition to green energy and related insurance products, as well as exposure to intangible assets, as significant growth opportunities. Industry reports from Carrier Management and Swiss Re further reinforce the positive outlook, with AM Best expecting profitable commercial lines and improving personal lines in 2024, and Swiss Re forecasting high single-digit premium growth in the same year.

The rising interest rate environment is also a boon for insurers. They invest a portion of their collected premiums, and long-tail insurers, with longer investment horizons, tend to benefit more from rising rates as they have more time to earn higher returns on their investments.

The Federal Reserve’s recent move to cut the interest rate by 50 basis points, marking the first such reduction in four years, signifies a shift in monetary policy. The rate now stands at 4.75-5%, down from a more than two-decade high of 5.25-5.5%.

Multiline insurers are also making significant investments in technology to enhance their scale and efficiency. This strategic move helps them generate higher margins and improve profitability. These combined factors contribute to the building of solid policyholders’ surplus, which acts as a buffer against losses. The strong capital positions of multiline insurers are fueling merger and acquisition activities, driving growth and enabling shareholder-friendly moves.

To better assess which multiline insurer is better positioned currently, we delve deeper into specific parameters.

Price Performance:

Old Republic’s shares have climbed 21.3% year to date, outperforming both the industry’s growth of 17.8% and Assurant’s rise of 17.6%.

Return on Equity (ROE):

Assurant, with an ROE of 19.6%, surpasses Old Republic’s ROE of 12.5% and the industry average of 16%.

Debt-to-Capital:

Old Republic’s debt-to-capital ratio of 24.8 is lower than both the industry average of 31.8 and Assurant’s reading of 29.3, giving ORI an advantage on this front.

Earnings Surprise History:

AIZ has exceeded expectations in each of the last seven reported quarters, while ORI has surpassed estimates in six of the last seven reported quarters.

Dividend Yield:

Old Republic’s dividend yield of 2.97% is higher than Assurant’s dividend yield of 1.45%, giving ORI an edge.

Valuation:

The price-to-book value is a key metric for valuing insurers. Old Republic, with a P/B ratio of 1.53, is cheaper than Assurant’s P/B ratio of 2.06, while the industry’s P/B ratio stands at 2.70.

Growth Projection:

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 earnings indicates 7.6% growth from the previous year for Old Republic, compared to a 6.7% increase projected for Assurant.

Earnings Estimates:

For 2024, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for AIZ has moved 2.9% north to $16.54 in the past 60 days, while the same for ORI has been revised 4.4% north to $2.83, giving AIZ an advantage in this area.

Net Margin:

Old Republic’s net margin for the trailing 12 months was 8.59%, higher than Assurant’s reading of 6.9%.

Conclusion:

Our comparative analysis suggests that Old Republic is better positioned than Assurant in terms of price, valuation, growth projection, dividend yield, leverage, and net margin. While AIZ outpaces ORI in terms of return on equity, earnings estimates, and earnings surprise history, the scale of advantages leans heavily towards Old Republic, making its stock appear more attractive for investors.

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