The online dating industry experienced a mixed bag of results in the second quarter of 2024. While overall spending saw a modest 3% year-over-year growth, aligning with JPMorgan analysts’ expectations, not all dating apps were feeling the love equally.
Tinder Stabilizes, Bumble Stumbles
Match Group Inc.’s (MTCH) flagship app, Tinder, displayed encouraging signs of stability, maintaining a steady 1% year-over-year growth. Conversely, Bumble Inc.’s (BMBL) attempt to revive its app through a highly publicized relaunch fell flat, failing to capture the intended audience. Consequently, Bumble had to drastically revise its 2024 revenue outlook downward, from an optimistic 8-11% to a mere 1-2%, prompting JPMorgan to adjust their third-quarter industry growth forecast from 3% to 1% year-over-year.
Hinge & Grindr: The Life of the Party
While Bumble faced challenges, Match Group’s Hinge and China-based Beijing Kunlun Tech Co.-owned Grindr emerged as the stars of the quarter. Hinge, known for its focus on meaningful connections, achieved a phenomenal 48% year-over-year growth, exceeding expectations for the second consecutive quarter. Grindr, a popular LGBTQ+ dating app, followed closely with a 34% year-over-year increase. Analysts anticipate continued growth for both apps, with Hinge projected to maintain a 35% year-over-year revenue growth in the third quarter and Grindr expected to see a 23% increase.
Looking Ahead: Swipe Right On 2025?
JPMorgan analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the future of the online dating industry. They predict a return to high-single-digit growth in 2025, with Tinder leading the charge. The app is expected to achieve mid-single-digit growth, fueled by increases in both revenue per payer and user numbers.
However, the analysts emphasize the importance of innovation for the industry’s long-term success. To sustain high-single-digit growth beyond 2025, online dating platforms will need to introduce fresh features and enhance user experience. Without such advancements, the dating landscape may face a bleak future.
Despite the recent fluctuations, the online dating industry remains a vibrant and evolving market. The coming quarters will reveal whether apps can adapt to changing user preferences and continue to connect people in meaningful ways.
