Reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian has extended his lead over hard-liner Saeed Jalili in Iran’s presidential runoff election, surpassing 2 million votes as counting continues. Early Saturday, supporters of Pezeshkian, a heart surgeon and seasoned lawmaker, flooded the streets of Tehran and other cities to celebrate his growing advantage over Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator known for his hard-line stance. However, even a potential victory for Pezeshkian casts a shadow of uncertainty over Iran, which faces a delicate situation amidst escalating tensions in the Middle East. The ongoing Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip, Iran’s continued advancement of its nuclear program, and the looming U.S. election, with its potential to influence any chance of détente between Tehran and Washington, all contribute to the complexities of the situation.
Mohsen Eslami, an election spokesperson, announced that Pezeshkian secured 11.1 million votes, outpacing Jalili’s 9 million. He refrained from disclosing the overall turnout figure as the counting process continues. The first round of voting on June 28 marked the lowest voter participation in the history of the Islamic Republic since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Iranian officials have long viewed turnout as a barometer of support for the country’s Shiite theocracy, which has faced significant strain due to years of crippling sanctions imposed on Iran’s economy, widespread demonstrations, and stringent crackdowns on dissent. In an effort to bolster participation, government officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, predicted a higher turnout for the runoff, with state television showcasing images of moderate lines at select polling centers across the nation. However, online videos purportedly depicted empty polling stations, while a survey of several dozen sites in the capital, Tehran, revealed limited traffic amidst a heavy security presence on the streets.
The election coincides with heightened regional tensions. In April, Iran launched its first direct attack on Israel in response to the war in Gaza. Simultaneously, militia groups armed by Tehran, including the Lebanese Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi rebels, actively participate in the conflict and have intensified their attacks. Iran is also engaged in enriching uranium to near weapons-grade levels, amassing a stockpile large enough to construct multiple nuclear weapons if it chooses to do so. While Khamenei remains the ultimate decision-maker on matters of state, the outcome of the presidential election could steer the country’s foreign policy towards either confrontation or collaboration with the West.
The campaign repeatedly addressed the implications of former President Donald Trump, who unilaterally withdrew America from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, winning the November election. Although Iran has held indirect talks with President Joe Biden’s administration, no tangible progress has been made towards reining in Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for lifting economic sanctions. Over 61 million Iranians aged 18 and above were eligible to vote, with approximately 18 million voters falling within the age range of 18 to 30. Voting was initially scheduled to conclude at 6 p.m. but was extended until midnight to encourage greater participation.
The late President Ebrahim Raisi, who tragically died in a helicopter crash in May, was considered a protégé of Khamenei and a potential successor as supreme leader. However, many recognized him for his involvement in the mass executions carried out by Iran in 1988 and his role in the brutal crackdowns on dissent that followed protests triggered by the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini. Amini, a young woman, was detained by police for allegedly violating the mandatory headscarf, or hijab, requirement.
