Polymarket, the cryptocurrency-based prediction market platform that gained notoriety for its accurate predictions during the recent US presidential election, is set to make a triumphant return to the American market. CEO Shayne Coplan, in a recent interview with CNBC, confirmed the company’s plans to re-enter the US, emphasizing that a US presence is a key part of their growth strategy and that they’re ready to aggressively expand their operations.
Coplan expressed gratitude for the efforts of those who advocated for the legalization of political prediction markets in the US, a move that paves the way for Polymarket’s re-entry. The company had been operating offshore since January 2022 after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) imposed a $1.4 million penalty and issued a cease-and-desist order for regulatory violations. This move effectively barred US residents from using the platform.
However, the landscape is shifting. Polymarket’s return coincides with a growing trend towards political prediction markets in the US. Kalshi, a competitor, resumed accepting bets on congressional elections after an appeals court overturned a ban by the CFTC last month. Even Robinhood, the popular trading app, has entered the fray, launching contracts for the presidential election just before the November 5th polls closed.
Polymarket’s re-entry is particularly noteworthy considering its impressive track record. The platform amassed a staggering $3.6 billion in bets on the outcome of the presidential race, making it the largest election prediction market. It even outperformed traditional media in terms of accuracy, according to Coplan. In comparison, Kalshi garnered roughly $440 million in bets for the presidential contract.
One prominent bettor, known as the French ‘Trump Whale’ or Theo, made headlines after netting nearly $50 million on Polymarket following Trump’s victory. His significantly larger bets favoring Trump sparked controversy, leading to concerns about foreign influence and potential market manipulation. However, Theo defended his strategy, claiming it was a challenge to conventional polling methods and he employed a technique called “the neighbor method” to achieve his predictions.
Polymarket’s return to the US market signifies a potential shift in the way political predictions are made. The platform’s successful track record and the growing acceptance of prediction markets suggest that this sector may play an increasingly important role in shaping political discourse and understanding public sentiment.
