In a bold move, Pseudonymous Polymarket trader ‘Redegen’ has doubled down on his prediction that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the popular vote in the 2024 presidential election. Despite being over $400,000 in the red on his multi-million dollar bet, Redegen remains confident, advising followers to ‘ignore the short-term volatility.’ He sees the odds of former President Donald Trump winning narrowing within a week, predicting a move from 66% to 53%, which he considers to be the true probability.
Redegen’s conviction stems from a belief in Harris’s economic policies, which he believes will resonate with voters. Harris has been emphasizing her focus on policies that benefit small businesses and working families, and Redegen sees this as a key differentiator from Trump’s economic plan. He’s not alone in his assessment. Senator Bernie Sanders’s (I-Vt.) recent endorsement of Harris, despite policy disagreements, reflects broader concerns among some voters about issues like the war in Gaza.
Redegen’s total outlay stands at a whopping $6.4 million, with no changes over the past four days despite his losses expanding from $250,000 to $465,000. He also holds a position against Trump winning both the popular vote and the election. This significant investment in the outcome of the 2024 election underscores the growing influence of prediction markets like Polymarket.
In related news, Robinhood recently launched Election Event Contracts, allowing users to bet on the 2024 presidential election outcome. Contracts are available for both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, providing another avenue for individuals to express their views on the upcoming election.
The impact of prediction markets on the political landscape is expected to be a hot topic at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on November 19. The event will delve into the influence of these markets and explore the implications for the 2024 election.
Redegen’s continued confidence in Harris winning the popular vote, despite his significant losses, highlights the evolving role of prediction markets in shaping political discourse and influencing public opinion. It remains to be seen whether Redegen’s bold bet will ultimately pay off, but his actions are certainly sparking conversation and generating interest in the 2024 election.
