Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly congratulated Donald Trump on his recent election victory, igniting widespread speculation regarding the future of US-Russia relations. While Putin’s endorsement hints at cautious optimism, it’s essential to analyze the complexities and expectations tied to this development.
Speaking at the Valdai Club in Sochi, Putin’s remarks conveyed respect and indicated a desire to rekindle dialogue with the US under Trump’s leadership. He referenced Trump’s campaign promises to improve ties with Russia and propose a peace plan for Ukraine, suggesting potential for diplomatic progress. However, he also tempered expectations, acknowledging the uncertainties that lie ahead.
This cautious optimism intertwines with Putin’s complex view of Trump’s unpredictable nature and historical inconsistencies in fulfilling promises. While Moscow welcomes Trump’s seemingly pro-Russia stance, concerns linger regarding his ability to convert rhetoric into tangible actions.
Putin’s hopes for renewed diplomacy are closely linked to the ongoing Ukraine conflict, where Russia has maintained firm conditions for peace. These demands include Ukraine’s renunciation of NATO aspirations, the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from four partially occupied regions claimed by Russia (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson), and the retention of Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014.
These conditions reflect Russia’s broader strategic goals, shaped by Putin’s vocal opposition to NATO expansion, which he perceives as a threat to Russian security. While Western leaders view these demands as unacceptable ultimatums, Putin has reiterated Russia’s unwavering stance, emphasizing readiness for negotiations while protecting their legitimate interests.
Putin’s comments also contained a warning for the West, accusing it of pushing the world toward a “dangerous line” by seeking a strategic defeat for Russia. He argued that the West has historically marginalized Russia, failing to recognize it as an equal partner since the Soviet Union’s collapse.
During his campaign, Trump suggested he could resolve the Ukraine conflict within “24 hours” if elected, although he did not provide concrete plans. Speculation exists that he might pursue a swift resolution by pressuring Ukraine into territorial concessions. His vice-president-elect, JD Vance, has echoed this stance, advocating for reduced aid to Ukraine.
However, Trump’s record during his first term suggests Moscow may be wary of harboring excessive expectations. Despite his pro-Russia rhetoric, he did not lift sanctions imposed on Russia following the annexation of Crimea and other actions. This raises doubts about his ability to fulfill promises, particularly given his reputation for erratic decision-making.
Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, expressed skepticism about Trump’s capability to end the war, dismissing his statements as “banalities.” He warned that drastic measures to end the conflict could carry significant risks, drawing parallels to the fate of U.S. President Kennedy.
Similarly, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed doubt about Trump’s ability to shift Washington’s “Russophobic course,” suggesting that a change in U.S. policy toward Russia is unlikely, regardless of who occupies the Oval Office.
The Kremlin appears in no rush to finalize a peace agreement on unfavorable terms, particularly as Russian forces continue to make gradual advances on the frontlines. Despite significant losses, estimated at over 600,000 soldiers killed or wounded, Russia remains committed to its military operations in Ukraine, especially in the Donbas region, where artillery is used to capture territory methodically.
Russia’s military strategy underscores a patient approach, suggesting a willingness to hold its position and wait for more favorable terms. For Trump to gain Putin’s trust and cooperation, his administration would need to present a clear policy regarding Russia and the Ukraine conflict. Given the diverse opinions within Trump’s team—ranging from support for a demilitarized zone in Ukraine to calls for increased military aid to Kyiv—the Kremlin will likely observe how Trump’s policy unfolds before making any decisive moves.
Meanwhile, Putin has unequivocally stated that he will not accept half measures. Russia’s expectations from the U.S. include halting NATO expansion, lifting sanctions, and allowing Moscow to dictate terms in Ukraine. The coming months will determine whether Trump’s return to the White House will usher in a new era of US-Russia relations or further escalate existing tensions.
