Despite launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Vladimir Putin appears stronger than ever before. Russian troops have captured several villages in recent weeks, pushing deep into Ukrainian territory. Other indicators also suggest Russia’s growing strength, hinting at a potential Ukrainian and Western defeat. Domestically, Putin has quelled dissent, with his former ally Yevgeny Prigozhin killed in a plane crash and his other major opponent, Alexei Navalny, perishing in a penal colony. Re-elected to yet another term, Putin has strengthened alliances with Iran and North Korea, securing vital military equipment. Although these partnerships may not be ideal for a self-proclaimed great power, they keep the Russian war machine well-oiled, unlike Ukraine’s challenges in obtaining Western military aid. President Xi Jinping of China has also reaffirmed his support for Putin during a state visit, solidifying the Moscow-Beijing bond. This relationship appears more sustainable than Kyiv’s ties with Western capitals. Within the EU, Slovakia and Hungary have expressed opposition to continued Western support for Ukraine. Russia’s offensive in the Kharkiv region has resulted in the capture of several villages, displacing over 10,000 people and adding pressure on humanitarian aid operations. Russian successes in Kharkiv follow territorial gains along the 1,000km-long frontline, wiping out Ukrainian counter-offensive gains from last year. Despite capturing only one major town, Russia has seized approximately 500 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. As the Kremlin intensifies its offensive, Ukraine faces weapon and ammunition shortages, despite increasing US supplies. Future Western support is uncertain, prompting Kyiv’s allies to consider contingency plans, particularly with upcoming US elections where Trump supporters have suggested cutting off aid to Ukraine. President Biden remains committed to Kyiv, but his re-election is far from guaranteed. Western support has been inconsistent, with the EU agreeing on using frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine, while G7 countries struggle to reach consensus on financing ongoing assistance. Russia’s perceived strength stems partly from Ukraine’s and the West’s weaknesses. While Russia has relentlessly attacked Ukraine for over two years, Kyiv has been constrained by Western-supplied weapons and engagement rules. However, more arms deliveries with fewer restrictions are starting to reach Ukraine. Unlike Ukraine, which recently updated its mobilization laws, the Kremlin has mobilized convicts and young Russians, sacrificing lives to thwart Ukraine’s counter-offensive and gain territory. Putin’s unconstrained decision-making, bolstered by Russia’s domestic resources and external support, allows him to recover from strategic and tactical errors. In contrast, Western strategy is often dictated by consensus among 32 NATO and 27 EU members, resulting in crisis management that has prevented Ukraine’s defeat but not paved the way for victory. Putin’s strength is relative, presenting both a threat and an opportunity for Ukraine and the West. Continued Western indecision will amplify Putin’s perceived strength and bolster the narrative of an unwinnable war. However, if Kyiv’s Western allies provide the necessary resources, the balance of power could shift decisively in Ukraine’s favor.
Putin’s Growing Strength: A Threat to Ukraine and the West
