Quantifying Upside and Downside in the NFL Draft
Introduction:
The term “upside” is often used in NFL Draft circles to describe a prospect’s potential for improvement and future success. However, evaluating upside can be subjective and difficult to quantify. This study aims to provide a more objective framework for assessing a player’s upside by analyzing athletic measurables and historical performance data.
Methodology:
1. Identify players who have shown significant improvement from college to the NFL based on WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and WAA (Wins Above Average) percentiles. These players are designated as “most improved” players.
2. Identify players who have underperformed in the NFL relative to their college production, known as “least improved” players.
3. Calculate the average combine measurables for the most improved and least improved players at each position.
4.Classify players into “upside” or “downside” categories based on their measurables compared to the averages of the most improved and least improved players.
5. Evaluate the historical performance of upside and downside players in the NFL using WAR per season.
Key Findings:
– Positions with the highest hit rates for upside players include interior offensive line, tight end, cornerback, edge defender, and wide receiver.
– Positions where upside players provide little to no advantage include linebacker, offensive tackle, defensive interior, safety, and running back.
– Downside players at all positions except offensive tackle and interior offensive line are less likely to succeed in the NFL.
– Upside players at interior offensive line and tight end have shown a significant improvement in hit rate compared to other positions.
Implications for NFL Draft Evaluation:
– Selecting upside players at positions with a high hit rate, such as interior offensive line and tight end, can be beneficial for teams.
– Pursuing upside players at positions with a low hit rate, such as linebacker and defensive interior, may be less effective based on historical data.
– Avoiding downside players at all positions except offensive tackle and interior offensive line is generally recommended.
Specific Player Examples:
–
Upside Players:
– Cade Johnson (TE): High athleticism and strong production profile.
– Jake Witt (IOL): Elite athletic profile and versatile playing ability.
– Spencer Barton (IOL): Impressive athletic testing and a high PFF grade.
– Gervon McCormick (IOL): Exceptional size and athleticism with three-position potential.
– Matthew Bortolini (IOL): Strong movement skills and improving production profile.
– Shemar Turner (EDGE): High pass-rush grade and versatile athleticism.
– Myles Wilson (WR): Elite workout numbers and standout performance at Senior Bowl.
– Henry Pearson (WR): Exceptional three-cone drill time and high-level agility.
– Ja’Quan Jones (CB): Explosive workout and strong production profile.
– Emmanuel Forbes (CB): Elite broad jump and vertical jump performance.
–
Downside Players:
– Maurice Irving (CB): Sub-par testing numbers despite a strong production profile.
– TreVonte Citizen (EDGE): Mid-tier athleticism and below-average testing numbers.
– Omari Thomas (DL): Below-average testing numbers and a questionable production profile.
– Devin Brown (DL): Poor vertical jump and average agility metrics compared to other interior linemen.
– Chevantez Nubin (S): Sub-par agility drills and below-average explosiveness.
Conclusion:
Quantifying upside and downside using athletic measurables and historical performance data can provide valuable insights into a player’s potential for improvement in the NFL. While upside should not be the only factor considered in player evaluation, it can serve as a tie-breaker or eliminator to help teams make more informed draft decisions.
