A new poll in Montana suggests that the Republican challenger, Tim Sheehy, has a significant edge over Democratic incumbent Senator Jon Tester. The AARP survey released on Thursday shows Sheehy leading Tester by six points in a two-way matchup, with 51% of likely voters supporting Sheehy and 45% supporting Tester. This poll, conducted by a bipartisan team, indicates a tight race with implications for the GOP’s bid to regain control of the Senate.
Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and CEO of a Montana-based firefighting company, enjoys the backing of former President Trump, who campaigned for him in Montana last month. Trump’s popularity in the state, where he won by 16 points in 2020, is seen as a potential boost for Sheehy. The poll suggests Trump’s endorsement is resonating with voters, showing him leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 15 points in a hypothetical 2024 presidential election.
Tester, a popular incumbent and former state lawmaker, is seeking his fourth term in the Senate. He is known for his ability to win close races, and this contest is expected to be no different. Despite Tester’s strong record in the state, the poll highlights a potential challenge for him due to the Republican advantage among likely voters. The survey reveals that 39% of likely voters identify as Republicans, while only 24% identify as Democrats. This suggests that Tester will need to secure a significant number of independent votes, or win over a portion of Republican voters, to retain his seat.
The race for Montana’s Senate seat is one of several key contests that could determine the outcome of the 2024 Senate elections. Republicans are targeting several Democratic incumbents in an effort to gain control of the chamber, currently split 51-49 in favor of the Democrats. Montana is considered a crucial state in this effort, with both parties investing significant resources in the race.
The outcome of the Montana Senate race will likely hinge on a number of factors, including the strength of the national political climate, the candidates’ ability to mobilize their base, and the ability to persuade independent voters. With the election approaching, the race is likely to remain tight, and both candidates will be working hard to secure victory.
