The battle for the Montana Senate seat is heating up, with Republicans gaining momentum in the race to unseat Democratic incumbent Jon Tester. According to a recent AARP poll, Republican candidate Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL, leads Tester by a six-point margin (51%-45%) in a head-to-head matchup. This lead has prompted Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a respected political handicapper, to change its prediction for the November election from a ‘toss-up’ to ‘leans Republican.’
The shift in favor of Sheehy is fueled by several factors, including the state’s history of voting Republican in presidential elections and Tester’s perceived distance from the national Democratic party. While Tester has been elected to the Senate three times, his re-election bids have often coincided with presidential elections, allowing him to benefit from national Democratic turnout. This year, however, Tester faces a more challenging environment with Vice President Kamala Harris topping the Democratic ticket and former President Donald Trump, who won Montana twice, leading the Republican ticket.
Tester has been careful to avoid aligning himself too closely with Harris and the national Democratic party, particularly as he was responsible for recruiting Harris to the Senate in 2015. Despite this strategic distancing, it remains unclear whether it will be effective in countering the Republican momentum. Sheehy is benefiting from the GOP’s focus on nationalizing the race, highlighting the state’s historical preference for Republican candidates in presidential elections. This strategy has resonated with Montana voters, contributing to Sheehy’s lead in the polls.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee, led by Senator Steve Daines, is confident in their ability to flip the Montana seat. Daines believes the GOP is in a strong position to win, citing the poll results and historical trends as indicators of a Republican victory. While Tester’s campaign has not yet responded to these developments, the upcoming weeks will be crucial for both candidates as they strive to sway voters in the lead-up to the November election.
