In light of upcoming general elections that he must call by January’s end, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has shifted into campaign mode. Allies describe the recent days as a period of intense activity for Sunak, who has unveiled plans to tighten welfare regulations, pursued his contentious policy of deporting asylum seekers to Rwanda, and pledged to allocate 2.5% of GDP to defense expenditure by 2030. These initiatives have dominated newspaper headlines, fueling speculation that Sunak may announce the election date early next week in an attempt to control the political agenda. On Friday afternoon, members of the media, parliamentarians, and civil servants engaged in a flurry of text messages, exchanging theories about the imminence of an announcement. However, one aide described the heightened tempo as “Operation Save Rishi,” intended to bolster Sunak’s position ahead of more immediate challenges, particularly the upcoming local council and mayoral elections on Thursday. These elections have been a source of anxiety for months, with Sunak’s internal Tory critics warning that any outcome suggesting the Labour Party is gaining momentum could trigger efforts to oust him. Sunak’s recent burst of activity, according to anonymous sources within his team, was partly motivated by the need to safeguard him from a leadership challenge next week. Nonetheless, they anticipate a difficult period ahead. The Tories are defending just under 1,000 seats in the upcoming elections, having benefited from the COVID-19 vaccine rollout in the 2021 vote. Since then, the party’s national support has dwindled, and Labour’s substantial lead in the polls could result in the loss of half of those seats. However, the mayoral races in the West Midlands and Tees Valley in northern England have drawn significant attention, with incumbent Tories Andy Street and Ben Houchen fighting to retain their positions. Both are regarded as emblems of the Conservative Party’s recent successes in traditionally Labour-leaning areas, and their defeat would be widely seen as a harbinger of a national loss. A lawmaker warned that defeats for Houchen and Street could jeopardize Sunak’s position, and a group of Tories who claim to be amassing support for a leadership change are awaiting an opportune moment to strike. One minister described the Cabinet as weary and nearing its breaking point. Sunak, according to sources familiar with the matter, privately believes that Houchen can emerge victorious and demonstrate that the Tories can still triumph in Labour-leaning areas. Street’s mayoral position is considered more precarious, but he provided Sunak with a boost by stating to Bloomberg that he would not hold the prime minister responsible if he lost. The Conservatives anticipate that Labour’s incumbent Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, will comfortably win a third term. Tory peer and pollster Robert Hayward predicted this week that the Tories would have a “bad night” but that Labour would not experience a “blowout” victory. According to Hayward, this is because some voters may penalize Labour for its stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict, which could have an impact on the mayoral elections and potentially aid Street and Houchen’s chances of winning. Meanwhile, those plotting against Sunak are proposing House of Commons leader Penny Mordaunt as their preferred candidate, sharing polling data with other MPs indicating her popularity with the public. However, an ally of Mordaunt stated that she would not resign following the May 2 elections or demand a change in leadership, a stance that appears to strengthen Sunak’s position. Despite this, many of Sunak’s recent actions are consistent with the actions of a prime minister attempting to deflect criticism. An aide explained that Monday’s promise to begin deportations of migrants to Rwanda within 10 to 12 weeks allows him to appease his right-wing Tory critics by providing them with additional time to establish flights. The Rwanda policy is so central to Sunak’s strategy that some Tory ministers and officials speculate that he may call the general election in July, coinciding with the first flights. The rationale, according to an aide, would be to persuade voters tempted by the right-wing Reform UK party to remain loyal to the Tories and Sunak’s commitment to halting Channel crossings by migrants. “We will stop the boats, Labour will stop the flights” could be a possible campaign slogan. The aide also noted that Sunak’s commitment to increase defense spending undermines a key selling point of Mordaunt, who, as a Royal Navy reservist, would typically be a strong advocate for boosting the nation’s military capabilities. Simultaneously, Tory officials were encouraged by Labour leader Keir Starmer’s reluctance to match Sunak’s military spending commitment, viewing it as an opportunity to criticize the opposition on national security issues. Labour, which has pledged to increase defense spending to 2.5% of GDP when the public finances permit, has accused the Tories of failing to demonstrate how they would fund the increase. Additional attacks on Labour’s policies concerning workers’ rights are expected in an effort to win back the support of business leaders. Sunak’s team hailed it as his best week in office, and another advisor characterized it as the first example of astute political maneuvering by his team – though they lamented its belated occurrence. Sunak’s office is confident that he has had a successful week at an opportune time and that the plot to oust him before the general election is dissipating. Some advisors urge Sunak to declare the date for the national vote immediately, but he has thus far resisted. Downing Street has previously favored holding the election in the autumn, when inflation and interest rates are anticipated to decline. In an interview with the Times, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps lauded Sunak’s leadership, urging Tory MPs to allow him to “get on with the job.” Shapps remarked, “The past week has shown we have a very effective prime minister when it comes to looking after the things that really matter.” In a week, it may be clearer whether such optimism is justified. For the time being, Sunak strives to project an image of a government achieving progress. He joined Russ Cook, an ultra-runner known on social media as the “Hardest Geezer” for completing a run across Africa, for a jog. Sunak remarked to Cook in a video posted by Downing Street, “It’s not an easy time to be doing the job.” “But we keep going, right?”
Rishi Sunak’s Campaign Mode: Prepping for Elections amidst Leadership Challenges
