In a significant development, Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister, Timur Ivanov, was arrested on Tuesday evening on bribery charges. This arrest has sent shockwaves through the Russian political establishment and raised speculations about its implications for the future of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Some analysts have suggested that Ivanov’s arrest is a warning to Shoigu, signaling that he too could face consequences if he falls out of favor with President Vladimir Putin.
The arrest of Ivanov, who was widely seen as one of Shoigu’s closest allies, has raised concerns about the latter’s power and position within the regime. Shoigu has faced criticism for Russia’s shortcomings on the battlefield in Ukraine, and the arrest of his deputy could be seen as a sign that his own position is under threat. The incident also highlights the strategic use of corruption charges within the regime, as it can cultivate loyalty and dependence, while also providing a pretext to undermine political opponents.
The Kremlin has denied that Ivanov’s arrest is related to treason, but not everyone is convinced. Some analysts believe that the arrest could be part of a wider campaign to weaken Shoigu’s power and influence. The real issue, according to experts, is not whether the deputy minister is corrupt, but whether he, and more importantly Shoigu, have become centers of power in their own right. The arrest may just be the beginning of what’s to come for Shoigu, as being ‘too powerful’ can be an incentive for Putin to take action. It would not be surprising if Shoigu is next or retires suddenly, as Joseph Stalin’s golden rule was ‘do unto others before they do it to you.’
