Russia’s ongoing military campaign is being supplemented by a coordinated information operation designed to instill fear and panic among Ukrainian residents and their compatriots abroad, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The ISW’s assessment, published in its Monday evening update, highlights efforts by Kremlin mouthpieces to amplify concerns about a potential Russian offensive against Kharkiv City. Notable among these is prominent state television propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, who has advocated for the targeted destruction of Kharkiv, giving civilians 48 hours to evacuate.
The ISW also notes claims from the Russian neo-nationalist publication that a battle for Kharkiv is ‘inevitable’ and will be more intense than previous conflicts, such as those in Bakhmut and Avdiivka. The think tank warns that any battle for Kharkiv will pose significant challenges for Moscow’s forces.
Kharkiv, located in northeastern Ukraine, has been under constant bombardment from Russian shells, drones, and missiles in recent months. Its proximity to the conflict zone and the perceived slowdown in Western aid have made it a target for Russian exploitation. Russian forces have been amassing on the northeastern Luhansk-Kharkiv front for months, seeking to break through to key cities like Kupiansk and ultimately Kharkiv, potentially reversing the gains made by Ukrainian troops in late 2022.
Ukrainian authorities have previously identified Russian attempts to spread panic in the region. In February 2023, the Center for Countering Disinformation reported Russian Telegram channels falsely claiming that Ukrainian officials were fleeing the city. Similar reports of a ‘mass exodus’ of civilians surfaced in April.
While concerns about a Russian offensive persist, the recently approved $61 billion funding package for Ukraine has provided some relief. The ISW assesses that, with timely delivery of this aid, the likelihood of a successful Russian ground offensive against Kharkiv is significantly reduced. The think tank emphasizes that the new funding will enable Kyiv to prepare for an anticipated Russian offensive this summer, with Kharkiv potentially being a target. However, the ISW maintains that Russia lacks the necessary forces to capture the city if Ukrainian defenders receive adequate supplies, which is expected with the resumption of U.S. military assistance.
