Russia Faces Demographic Crisis, Muslim Minority Threatens Identity, Ex-British Officer Warns
Russia is grappling with a major social problem that poses a significant threat to its identity and existence, according to former senior British army officer Colonel Tim Collins. This issue stems from a catastrophically low birth rate, which has placed Russia on the brink of a demographic crisis.
Colonel Collins warns that Russia’s population is rapidly dwindling, leading to a potential collapse of its current demographics. He projects that within the next five years, Russia’s Muslim minority could become the dominant population group, potentially exceeding a third of the country’s citizens. This demographic shift is driven by the country’s exceptionally low fertility rate, which is well below the replacement level needed to maintain a stable population.
Currently, Russia has a population of approximately 144 million people. However, its fertility rate has plummeted, with Russian women giving birth to an average of only 1.42 children per woman in 2022. This rate falls significantly short of the 2.1 children per woman required to sustain the population.
Russia’s official statistics agency, Rosstat, predicts that the country’s population could decline to 130 million by 2046 due to a combination of falling immigration and low birth rates. The Muslim population in Russia has its roots in the country’s imperial past and constitutes the majority in several regions, including Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, and Karachay-Cherkessia.
Despite the growing Muslim population, a 2022 poll conducted by the independent Levada Centre revealed that only 5% of Russians identify as Muslim, while 71% consider themselves Orthodox Christian. This discrepancy highlights the complex religious landscape of Russia.
In the wake of the invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has emphasized the close ties between Russia and China. However, Colonel Collins alleges that Russia is being exploited and used to further China’s geopolitical ambitions. He believes that China views Russia as a expendable asset in its rivalry with the West and that the timing of the invasion of Ukraine was influenced by the conclusion of the Beijing Winter Olympics.
Colonel Collins’s remarks underscore the significant challenges facing Russia. The country’s demographic crisis and the potential rise of its Muslim minority raise fundamental questions about its future identity and geopolitical standing. It remains to be seen how Russia will navigate these challenges and whether it can address the underlying issues that threaten its long-term stability and prosperity.
