Russia’s nuclear posturing in the midst of its war with Ukraine has heightened concerns over the potential for nuclear escalation. Earlier this month, Russia announced plans to conduct drills simulating the use of tactical nuclear weapons along the Ukrainian border, while in March, it declared its intention to station nuclear weapons in Belarus. These actions have been met with alarm, as they represent a shift in Russia’s nuclear doctrine and a departure from the long-held understanding of nuclear deterrence.
Traditionally, nuclear deterrence has been based on the principle of mutually assured destruction (MAD), which holds that any use of nuclear weapons would result in the annihilation of both belligerents. However, Russia’s recent actions suggest a willingness to lower the threshold for nuclear use, even in a conflict that does not directly threaten its survival. This shift is particularly troubling, as it could lead other nuclear-armed states to adopt similar tactics, increasing the risk of nuclear escalation in future conflicts.
Moreover, Russia’s nuclear signaling sets a dangerous precedent for non-nuclear states. By threatening to use nuclear weapons as a coercive tactic in a conventional conflict, Russia is undermining the global non-proliferation regime and encouraging other states to pursue nuclear weapons as a means of deterring aggression. This could lead to a proliferation of nuclear weapons, increasing the risk of nuclear conflict.
In addition to the risks of nuclear escalation and proliferation, Russia’s actions also threaten to undermine efforts towards nuclear disarmament. The Budapest Memorandum, signed in 1994, saw Ukraine surrender its nuclear arsenal in exchange for security assurances from the United Kingdom, the United States, and Russia. Russia’s current nuclear posturing calls into question the reliability of these assurances and could motivate other non-nuclear states to reconsider their commitments to nuclear disarmament.
The unfolding dynamics in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have created a new nuclear flashpoint. By raising the risk of nuclear use and lowering the threshold for nuclear deterrence, Russia has fundamentally altered the understanding of how nuclear weapons are employed. This shift has increased proliferation anxieties for smaller states across the world, especially in regions with long-standing tensions, and could lead to a more unstable and dangerous nuclear environment.
