Rwandans will cast their ballots on Monday in an election widely expected to result in President Paul Kagame extending his rule. Kagame, a figurehead for Rwanda since the conclusion of the 1994 genocide, faces minimal opposition, with the same candidates he defeated seven years ago participating in the race. The opposition, led by Frank Habineza of the Democratic Green Party, the sole authorized opposition, and independent candidate Philippe Mpayimana, struggle to compete with Kagame’s dominant presence.
Kagame, 66, is credited with leading Rwanda’s economic recovery following the genocide, with average annual GDP growth reaching 7.2% between 2012 and 2022. However, his regime has faced heavy criticism for its suppression of political dissent within Rwanda. A United Nations report has also implicated Rwandan troops in fighting alongside the M23 rebel militia in neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo.
Kagame has consistently secured landslide victories in past elections, winning with over 93% of the vote in 2003, 2010, and 2017. In the most recent poll, he garnered nearly 99% of the votes. Habineza received a mere 0.48% in 2017, while Mpayimana secured a slightly higher 0.73%. Rwandan courts rejected appeals from prominent opposition figures Bernard Ntaganda and Victoire Ingabire, effectively barring their participation in the election due to prior convictions. The election commission also blocked high-profile Kagame critic Diane Rwigara from running, citing inconsistencies in her paperwork. Rwigara, daughter of former major donor to Kagame’s Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), Assinapol Rwigara, was accused of document forgery and arrested in 2017, later being acquitted by the courts.
A total of 9.01 million Rwandans are eligible to vote, with the presidential election coinciding with legislative elections for the first time.
The stark disparity between Kagame and his rivals has been evident throughout the three-week campaign period. The well-organized RPF PR machine has been in full force, with flags, banners, and posters displaying the party’s red, white, and blue colors, along with slogans like “Tora Kagame Paul” (“Vote Paul Kagame”) and “PK24” (for “Paul Kagame 2024”), ubiquitous throughout the country. In contrast, Kagame’s opponents struggle to attract attention, with meager turnouts for their rallies.
“I came here to listen what he says but I will vote for Kagame… regardless of the others,” Beatrice Mpawenimana, 30, told AFP at a Habineza party meeting in the eastern village of Juru. “He has given us women a voice, he has brought roads, hospitals, so many things… I want him to be president forever, nobody can replace him.” Mpawenimana’s sentiment reflects the general attitude of many Rwandans, particularly those under 30, who constitute 65% of the population and have only known Kagame as their leader.
Kagame’s political journey began with his RPF militia, which defeated Hutu extremists responsible for the genocide that claimed the lives of 800,000 people, primarily Tutsis but also moderate Hutus. Initially serving as vice-president and defense minister, Kagame assumed the presidency in 2000 following the resignation of Pasteur Bizimungu. Since then, he has won three elections by universal suffrage: 95.05% in 2003, 93.08% in 2010, and 98.79% in 2017.
“The RPF ruling party is quite popular across the country, this is undeniable,” Rwandan constitutional lawyer and political analyst Louis Gitinywa told AFP. “As for the election, it is like an exercise that must be done simply to tick a box. There is no real opponent against Kagame.”
Human rights organizations have accused the government of numerous abuses, including repression of freedom of expression and the suppression of dissent. Amnesty International recently stated that Rwanda’s political opposition faces “severe restrictions… as well as threats, arbitrary detention, prosecution, trumped-up charges, killings and enforced disappearances.”
In 2015, Kagame oversaw controversial constitutional amendments that reduced presidential terms from seven to five years while resetting the clock for the Rwandan leader, potentially allowing him to rule until 2034.
