The ongoing debate surrounding Mohamed Salah’s future at Liverpool has escalated into a heated controversy, spilling beyond the touchline and into public discourse. The unseemly spat between two club legends has cast a shadow over Jurgen Klopp’s reign, creating a potential flashpoint that threatens to divide supporters. While some fans express sadness at Salah’s conduct, others express anger. Understandably, there is also sympathy for a player who has been instrumental in Liverpool’s success but feels he deserves more playing time, especially in crucial games. Complicating the situation further is Salah’s contract status and the reported interest from Saudi Arabia, which could potentially sway the player’s and even the club’s decision. At 32 years old, economic factors also come into play, especially considering the potential arrival of Arne Slot. Michael Edwards, upon his return as chief executive of football, will need to navigate this decision with the level-headedness that has defined his reputation. This does not mean disregarding emotions, but it necessitates a careful examination of the evidence. Salah’s form has undoubtedly dipped since he returned from the Africa Cup of Nations and the injury that hampered Egypt’s performance in the tournament. The eye test cannot be ignored: Salah’s performances have lacked the explosive pace and clinical finishing that characterized his previous displays. However, it’s crucial to avoid the trap of framing any decline as definitive, especially amidst the disappointment of a missed title opportunity. Salah’s overall record deserves dispassionate consideration. His numbers this season, while not as spectacular as in the past, are still impressive. He ranks sixth for goals and fourth for assists in the Premier League. Only Cole Palmer and Ollie Watkins, both regarded as having exceptional seasons rather than enduring career lows, have been involved in more Premier League goals than Salah. Delving deeper into the data reveals that Salah’s output has remained remarkably consistent since his debut season at Liverpool, where he scored an astonishing 32 Premier League goals and 44 goals across all competitions. The legend of the Egyptian king was forged during that remarkable campaign. This season alone, Salah has scored more regularly than in some of his previous seasons. The primary difference lies in his conversion rate, which has fallen below his expected goals total. Finishing has been an issue, with occasional miskicks and snatched shots. Poor decision-making has also contributed to his and his fans’ frustration. It’s possible that the wasteful finishing of his teammates has influenced his own decision-making. The picture has not been as clear-cut as when he was at his peak. Encouragingly, Salah is still creating chances for himself. The absence of chances is often the tell-tale sign of genuine decline. Despite the perception that he has been ‘quiet,’ this is a reason to believe that Salah could easily go on another scoring run, considering that finishing form can fluctuate. Even more impressively, Salah has maintained these underlying numbers despite a fundamental change in his positioning. This shift has meant collecting the ball in positions further away from the opposition box, both in terms of width and depth. It’s an evolution that began prior to this season, a consequence of subtle yet significant tactical changes. Trent Alexander-Arnold’s role has altered, moving inside rather than out, while Darwin Nunez is a very different player to Roberto Firmino, who vacated space for Salah. As a result, Salah’s role has morphed into that of a more traditional wide player. A year-on-year comparison of his heatmaps clearly illustrates this change. While gradual, the contrast between his first Liverpool season and this one is evident. In addition to Klopp’s tactical adjustments driving this change, it also reflects Salah’s own profile. He is no longer the dribbler he once was. He completes fewer dribbles now, and not just because he attempts them less frequently. His success rate has also dipped from 56 percent to a low of 31 percent. Salah’s ability to adapt is a testament to his talent. He has become more creative, conjuring opportunities for others. Salah is playing more through-balls now than at any other time during his career. No one in the Premier League has created more big chances. Expected assists provide a fairer calculation of chance creation than assists because they are not dependent on another player’s ability to convert those opportunities – a particularly relevant consideration given Nunez’s often erratic finishing in front of goal. Salah’s expected assists per 90 minutes this season are the highest of his Liverpool career. He has never been as effective at laying on chances for his teammates. As a result, his combined expected goals and assists total ranks him second in the Premier League. Only Erling Haaland has higher expected goal involvements this season, placing Salah ahead of both Palmer and Bukayo Saka. These numbers are crucial for the Liverpool hierarchy to consider when deliberating Salah’s future. Decline may be inevitable, but it has not yet begun. Numerous factors will influence this decision. Regardless of the outcome, the challenge is to cut through the noise surrounding Mohamed Salah and assess the player he is now, not just the player he once was.
Salah’s Future at Liverpool: Noise versus Evidence
