Saskatchewan Government Knew of Exponential COVID-19 Spread in Fall 2021, Despite Public Denial

Internal data obtained through Access to Information legislation reveals that the Saskatchewan government was fully aware of the exponential spread of COVID-19 in the fall of 2021, contradicting their public stance at the time. A six-page briefing presented to senior officials at the Ministry of Health on September 3, 2021, just days before the government publicly declined to implement additional measures, painted a grim picture of the province’s COVID-19 situation.

The presentation, based on modelling updates prepared by the Ministry of Health’s team, indicated that the reproduction number (Rt) in Saskatchewan had reached 1.4 on August 18, 2021, signaling exponential growth. By August 29, 2021, the Rt had further increased to 1.9, with an estimated 8,600 undiagnosed infectious individuals in the province.

Despite these alarming projections, the government initially resisted calls from health professionals and the public to implement stricter COVID-19 measures. Dr. Cory Neudorf, an interim senior medical health officer with the Saskatchewan Health Authority, expressed concerns about the government’s inaction, particularly as the start of the school year approached.

On September 10, 2021, Premier Scott Moe announced that the province would not introduce any masking or vaccination requirements, citing concerns about creating “two classes of citizens.” However, just six days later, on September 16, 2021, the government reversed its stance, implementing a masking mandate and requiring proof of vaccination to enter certain establishments.

The government’s initial reluctance to implement additional measures despite clear evidence of exponential spread has raised questions about transparency and accountability in government responses to public health emergencies. Former health minister Paul Merriman declined to comment, while the Ministry of Health’s statement attributed the surge in cases to the more transmissible Delta variant without directly acknowledging the government’s knowledge of the situation.

Premier Moe has defended the government’s decisions, emphasizing that they were made based on the information available at the time. However, critics argue that the government’s resistance to implementing stricter measures contributed to the devastating wave of COVID-19 infections that followed, leading to hundreds of deaths and overwhelming the province’s health system.

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