Sheikh Hasina, the ousted Prime Minister of Bangladesh, arrived in India on Monday afternoon as the fall of her government became imminent and her safety in the country was compromised. The youth-led agitation, fueled by her political rivals and the army, forced her to seek refuge. Sources close to Hasina, who landed at an Indian Air Force base near Delhi, revealed that her stay in India would be brief. The next destination for the former leader remains undisclosed but is expected to be unveiled in the coming days. Speculation suggests that Hasina has explored options in Europe, with Finland initially considered, but recent reports point to London as the most likely choice.
The decision to seek asylum in the UK is deeply intertwined with Hasina’s family ties, particularly through her sister, Sheikh Rehana, who is a British citizen. Rehana has been an unwavering pillar of support for Hasina, both surviving the tragic 1975 massacre that claimed the life of their father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the founding father of Bangladesh. Their shared history and mutual support offer a sanctuary for Hasina in the UK. Rehana’s influence extends to her children, who have inherited a profound socio-political understanding from their grandfather.
Rehana’s daughter, Tulip Siddiq, serves as an MP in the UK House of Commons and holds the position of City Minister in the Starmer government. This political foothold provides a significant advantage for Hasina in the UK. Siddiq’s influence in the UK political landscape, coupled with her family’s history, creates a safe and advantageous environment for Hasina.
The UK’s liberal asylum policy for politicians further strengthens London’s appeal. Historically, the UK has provided refuge for political figures seeking asylum from persecution. The UK Home Office, under the Refugee Convention and Immigration Rules, has a favorable track record of granting asylum to political leaders from around the world. This policy aligns with Hasina’s need for a secure environment, protecting her from potential persecution by her political adversaries in Bangladesh.
While India’s geographical proximity and historical ties with Bangladesh might seem logical, it poses several challenges for Hasina. The close political and physical proximity could lead to India becoming entangled in Bangladesh’s internal politics. Granting asylum to Hasina could be perceived as siding with a particular faction, straining diplomatic relations with the subsequent government in Bangladesh. Such a scenario could lead to accusations of interference, a situation both countries would prefer to avoid. Additionally, the potential for diplomatic complications makes India an unsuitable refuge for Hasina.
Moreover, the anticipated rise of a rival government led by Nobel Laureate economist Muhammad Yunus and the release of Hasina’s arch-rival Khaleda Zia, who had been serving sentences in corruption cases, further complicate matters. Yunus and Hasina have a long history of political rivalry, with Hasina publicly criticizing Yunus’s influence in the West and his criticism of her government’s economic policies. The current political climate in Bangladesh could potentially escalate into increased attacks on the Hindu minority population, reminiscent of the 1971 refugee crisis. India, already increasing its vigil along the Bangladesh border, might view a prolonged stay by Hasina as a provocation for Islamist groups targeting Hindus, leading to another mass migration.
While Hasina’s son, Sajeeb Wazed Joy, resides in the United States, the strained relationship between Hasina and the Biden administration makes the US a less favorable option. Hasina’s past accusations of US attempts to destabilize her government and the Biden administration’s criticism of her governance style, citing human rights violations, create a less welcoming environment for her.
In conclusion, Sheikh Hasina’s choice of London as a potential refuge seems driven by a confluence of personal, familial, and political factors. Her sister’s British citizenship and support, coupled with her niece’s prominent political role in the UK, offer a secure and influential environment. The UK’s liberal asylum policies provide additional security, while the complexities of seeking refuge in India or the US make those options less viable. As Hasina navigates this new phase, London emerges as a strategic choice for her future, potentially marking a step away from politics. Joy has indicated that Hasina has no plans to return to Bangladesh to pursue politics, expressing disappointment with the youth’s turn against her.
