Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh’s longest-serving prime minister, has abruptly resigned and left the country, leaving a void in the region and leaving India facing a complex geopolitical landscape. Her departure comes amidst protests calling for her resignation, plunging Bangladesh into political uncertainty. While an interim government will take charge, the repercussions of Hasina’s exit will extend beyond Bangladesh, particularly impacting India, which has long considered her a steadfast ally.
India’s immediate concern is the loss of a crucial partner in the region. Hasina’s consistent support for India amid strained relations with other neighbors like Pakistan and Nepal, made her a valuable asset. However, with her departure and reports of seeking asylum in the UK, India will face challenges in rebuilding diplomatic ties with Bangladesh. Anti-India sentiment, fueled by perceptions of Indian interference in Bangladeshi politics, could hinder these efforts. India’s decision to provide safe passage to Hasina might further exacerbate these feelings.
The impact on defense ties is another significant concern. Under Hasina’s leadership, India and Bangladesh enjoyed a flourishing defense partnership, including joint military exercises, training programs, and defense equipment deals. The new interim government may adopt a different approach to defense cooperation, potentially jeopardizing these collaborations. While some experts point to the pro-India stance of Bangladesh’s army chief, there is no guarantee that the existing defense ties will remain unchanged.
Beyond defense, India’s security concerns are also heightened. With a shared porous border exceeding 4,000 kilometers, India relies on strong cooperation with Bangladesh to combat insurgent groups operating in its northeastern region. Hasina’s administration had effectively curbed their activities, but with a new government in place, the situation remains uncertain. The potential for unrest in Bangladesh could also lead to a refugee influx, further straining India’s resources.
India’s economic ties with Bangladesh, particularly in trade and infrastructure, face disruption. Bangladesh is India’s largest trading partner in the subcontinent, and the two countries have been collaborating on key infrastructure projects. The ongoing Free Trade Agreement negotiations, which hold the potential for substantial economic benefits, may be put on hold or face delays. The fate of existing infrastructure projects, including the Akhaura-Agartala rail link and the Khulna-Mongla Port rail line, also remains unclear.
China, a keen observer of regional dynamics, is expected to exploit the political instability in Bangladesh to enhance its influence. With India’s neighborhood witnessing unrest in countries like Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and Afghanistan, China has been actively seeking to expand its presence. Bangladesh, facing political turmoil, presents a lucrative opportunity for China to deepen its strategic foothold in the region.
Experts warn of a potential “worst-case scenario” for India with Hasina’s departure. The absence of a strong pro-India voice in Bangladesh could empower anti-India elements and lead to a shift in the geopolitical balance in the region, presenting a significant challenge to India’s strategic interests.
