In a dramatic turn of events, Shigeru Ishiba has returned as Japan’s Prime Minister, just hours after his entire cabinet resigned following a general election that saw his coalition lose its majority.
The Diet, Japan’s parliament, convened for a special four-day session to elect a new prime minister. Despite losing the election, Ishiba, leader of the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), managed to secure the parliamentary vote, albeit without a majority. He garnered support from 221 lawmakers, defeating Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), who received 160 votes.
Ishiba’s victory is a testament to the fragmented nature of Japan’s opposition parties, who remain divided on key issues and are unable to mount a credible challenge. This leaves Ishiba in a precarious position, leading a minority government.
The LDP and its coalition partner, Komeito, are still the largest bloc in the lower house, despite losing their majority. They will now have to rely on the support of smaller opposition parties, like the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), to pass their policy agenda. The DPP has agreed to cooperate on a vote-by-vote basis but will not join the coalition.
Ishiba’s leadership faces significant challenges, especially considering the upcoming election for the less powerful upper house next year. His slim majority in the upper house is at risk, especially if he fails to restore public trust in his administration, which has been tarnished by a scandal involving unrecorded donations to lawmakers.
Furthermore, Ishiba must contend with the rise of protectionist policies under US President Donald Trump, a key ally. Japanese officials are concerned that Trump might impose protectionist trade measures on Japan and demand higher payments for stationing US forces in the country. There are also fears that Trump’s administration could impose fresh tariffs on Chinese and Japanese goods, potentially fueling inflation.
The new Prime Minister’s immediate focus will be on compiling a supplementary budget for the fiscal year, facing pressure from voters and opposition parties to increase spending on welfare and address rising prices.
“In order to stay in power, Ishiba needs to pass the government budget this winter,” said Tomoaki Iwai, professor emeritus at Nihon University. “It will mean the LDP will have to concede some of its policies to seek cooperation from others.”
Ishiba will be ceremonially approved by the emperor and will announce his new cabinet later today. As he faces these formidable challenges, his ability to navigate the turbulent political waters ahead will be paramount in determining the future of Japan.
