The election of Shigeru Ishiba as Japan’s new prime minister has sent ripples through the world, raising questions about the future of U.S.-Japan relations. Experts are dissecting Ishiba’s stance on key issues, particularly his views on military alliances, trade, and technology transfer, and how they could impact the longstanding partnership between Tokyo and Washington.
One of the most prominent concerns revolves around Ishiba’s vision for Japan’s military. He has openly suggested revising the U.S. forces deployment agreement and amending Japan’s pacifist constitution. Furthermore, he has proposed the creation of an Asian NATO, a concept that could elevate Japan to a peer ally of the United States, a move that could potentially redefine the power dynamics in the region.
While Ishiba’s motivations appear to be rooted in enhancing deterrence and strengthening Japan’s sovereignty, this dual approach has made Washington uneasy. Experts like Gerry Curtis, a retired Columbia scholar, have expressed concerns about Ishiba’s potential to disrupt the existing U.S.-Japan relationship, citing his belief that the current U.S. deal is outdated.
The economic repercussions of Ishiba’s victory have already been felt. Japan’s key stock market gauge, the Nikkei 225, plummeted over 2,000 points, or 5.02%, reflecting investor uncertainty about Ishiba’s economic policies. This drop highlights the fragility of the Japanese economy, particularly its reliance on exports, and the potential for market volatility under Ishiba’s leadership.
Ishiba’s stance on international trade could further strain the U.S.-Japan relationship. Earlier this month, he warned that President Joe Biden’s opposition to Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel might undermine trust between the allies. This underscores the potential for friction over trade policies and technology transfers to China, which could impact Japanese manufacturers and the overall economic partnership.
Despite the potential challenges, Hiro Akita of Nikkei describes Ishiba as a realist who understands that Japan must adapt to a changing world. While he’s not seeking to push America back, his leadership could still significantly impact the trajectory of U.S.-Japan relations. The election of Shigeru Ishiba marks a significant shift from the policies of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. His pragmatic approach promises changes to Japan’s domestic and international policies, making him a figure to closely watch in the coming months and years.
