Singapore is facing a potential population decline within the next decade, a demographic shift that could have far-reaching consequences for the city-state’s economy and workforce. According to a recent media report, the number of citizen deaths could surpass the number of citizen births in the first half of the 2030s if current trends persist. This stark projection highlights the growing gap between birth and death rates.
In 2023, Singapore recorded 24,726 citizen deaths, a significant 40% increase compared to 2014. Meanwhile, citizen births have fallen by 13% over the same period, declining from 33,193 in 2014 to 28,877 in 2023. While these projections highlight the potential trajectory of Singapore’s population, it’s important to note that they are based on current trends and could be subject to change.
Experts have highlighted the potential implications of a shrinking population for Singapore’s economy and society. Associate Professor Walter Theseira, a labour economist from the Singapore University of Social Sciences, suggests that a declining resident population could lead to a shrinking labour force, potentially impacting economic activity. He particularly points to sectors like food and beverage and retail that heavily rely on domestic consumption, which could face significant challenges as the resident population shrinks.
Dr Leong Chan-Hoong, head of the Social Cohesion Research Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, adds another layer of concern. He notes that an older population could place a heavier tax burden on working-age adults, potentially impacting social welfare systems and requiring adjustments to support a growing elderly population.
Despite these challenges, Singapore’s total population has actually seen an increase in recent years, reaching 5.92 million as of June 2023. This growth, however, has been driven by an influx of permanent residents and non-residents, including foreigners working or studying in Singapore. The citizen population rose by 1.6% to 3.61 million, while the permanent resident population increased by 3.7% to 0.54 million, and the non-resident population experienced a significant 13.1% growth, reaching 1.77 million in June 2023.
While Singapore has experienced a period of population growth, the looming demographic shift underscores the importance of addressing the potential challenges associated with a shrinking population. Government policies and societal adaptations will be crucial in navigating the potential economic and social implications of this demographic change.
