France’s economic growth is expected to slow, resulting in the country falling out of the world’s top ten largest economies within the next five years, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF’s updated global economic outlook projects that France’s contribution to global economic growth in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms will decrease to 1.98% in 2029, compared to 2.2% estimated last year. This decline is attributed to several factors, including persistent budget deficits, which are expected to remain above 4% until 2029. Additionally, France’s public debt is anticipated to surpass 115% of gross domestic product (GDP).
France’s economic outlook has raised concerns among EU officials, with the European Commission expressing concerns about potential conflicts with EU fiscal rules in response to the country’s 2024 budget plan. Global rating agencies also pose a risk of negative adjustments.
Meanwhile, other countries are projected to experience stronger economic growth. Britain’s share of global gross domestic product growth in 2029 is expected to be 2.2% on a PPP basis, making it the world’s tenth largest economy. Türkiye is also forecast to improve its ranking, taking ninth place with a 2.09% share of global growth.
The top five contributors to global economic growth through 2029 are projected to be China (19.48%), the US (14.72%), India (9.23%), Japan (3.21%), and Indonesia (2.79%). Germany (2.77%), Russia (2.71%), and Brazil (2.19%) are also expected to be among the top ten.
Despite France’s economic challenges, the IMF has raised its global growth forecast for the current year. The world economy has proven to be “surprisingly resilient,” with global GDP projected to reach 3.2% in 2024, a modest increase from the January forecast. The following year, growth is anticipated to remain at 3.2%.
