The Scottish National Party (SNP), the governing party of Scotland, has experienced a crushing defeat in the UK general elections, a setback so severe that it even surpasses the Conservative Party’s losses. Out of Scotland’s 57 parliamentary seats, 53 have been declared, with the Labour Party claiming a commanding 38 seats, the SNP securing a mere eight, the Liberal Democrats taking five, and the Conservatives winning three, according to BBC News. This outcome represents a complete reversal of the 2019 elections, where the SNP secured a dominant 46 seats.
The SNP’s rout represents a significant blow to the Scottish independence movement, effectively diminishing any immediate prospects of an independence referendum or a widespread push for secession. With only eight seats, the SNP will lack the political leverage to pressure the government in London into holding a referendum. The results are slightly more favorable than exit polls, which had predicted the SNP to win a mere six seats, albeit the difference is marginal. Despite the dismal projections in the exit polls, Scottish Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes of the SNP maintained that the party’s independence agenda remained strong among voters. “I would strongly caution anybody against dismissing the robust, resilient and significant number of people in this country that support independence and the next Labour government will have to contend with that, we’ll have to listen to Scottish voters because even over the last few months – which have been difficult – that support for independence has remained strong,” said Forbes to BBC News.
The SNP faces a double whammy in Scotland. Beyond the loss in the UK elections and the accompanying loss of parliamentary influence, the party’s leadership is facing scrutiny. In an article for The Spectator, Stephen Daisley argued that Scottish First Minister John Swinney’s leadership of the region will come under intense scrutiny as a consequence of the party’s poor performance. Having held senior positions within the SNP for the past 17 years, Swinney is unlikely to escape unscathed. Daisley further predicts that the SNP’s influence within Scotland is likely to diminish further. He anticipates that in the regional elections scheduled for 2026, the Labour Party is poised to replace the SNP as the favored choice of voters. Such an outcome could signify the end of the SNP’s two-decade dominance in Scotland, dealing a further blow to the nationalist movement in the region. If the SNP loses power in Scotland after two decades of rule, mirroring the Conservatives’ expulsion from national power after 14 years, the nationalist movement would suffer a generational setback.
