The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the southwest monsoon has advanced into the remaining parts of the Bay of Bengal, Tripura, Meghalaya, Assam, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, and Sikkim. Additionally, the monsoon has set in over Kerala in southern India. The weather office anticipates that conditions are favorable for the monsoon to progress further into the central Arabian Sea, the remaining parts of the south Arabian Sea, the Lakshadweep area, some parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, and the Southwest Bay of Bengal within the next three days.
This year, the southwest monsoon arrived early, two days ahead of schedule. It has already set in over Kerala and Mahe and has advanced into most parts of northeast India, including the entire Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh, and most parts of Tripura, Meghalaya, and Assam. Typically, the monsoon sets in over Kerala on June 1 and advances over most of northeast India by June 5.
According to the IMD, widespread rainfall preceded the monsoon’s entry into these states. The monsoon season, which spans approximately four months and begins in June, is vital for India, especially for rural areas that rely heavily on agriculture. It contributes approximately three-quarters of the country’s annual rainfall, supporting crop cultivation and boosting farm incomes and consumer demand.
The IMD predicts above-normal rainfall at 106% of the long-period average (LPA) this year. The weather office indicated in an updated forecast earlier this week that rainfall is likely to be above average in the majority of rain-fed farming areas. It assigned a 61% probability to above-normal (105-110% of LPA) and excess rainfall (over 110% of LPA), which potentially increases the risk of flooding in certain parts of the country.
