The southwest monsoon is set to weaken in south India over the next seven days, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). After hitting the Kerala coast two days ahead of schedule on May 30, the monsoon has been active in the southern region, causing two major landslides in Kerala’s Wayanad on July 30. Since the start of the four-month monsoon season (June-September), the region has recorded a 24% surplus in precipitation. Central India has also experienced above-normal rainfall, receiving 18% more than usual during the same period. However, the east and northeast regions have witnessed a 11% deficiency in rainfall, while the northwest region has seen a 5% shortfall. Overall, the country has received 7% higher rainfall than normal since June 1. The IMD predicts that rainfall activity will be subdued over most parts of peninsular India for the next seven days. The department expects widespread light to moderate rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Kerala & Mahe, Lakshadweep, and Karnataka. Isolated to scattered rainfall is anticipated over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Telangana, and Rayalaseema during the week. Meanwhile, Delhi has been experiencing its cleanest air this year, a welcome change. According to the Centre’s Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM), the national capital has enjoyed its cleanest air quality in six years between January 1 and August 8. The CAQM reported on X that the Air Quality Index (AQI) recorded at 4 pm on August 8 was 53, marking the cleanest air quality for any day between January 1 and August 8 since 2018. As of 4 pm on Friday, the Central Pollution Control Board reported an AQI of 60 in Delhi, categorized as satisfactory. The improvement in air quality is attributed to the recent heavy rainfall in Delhi during this monsoon season, particularly this month. AQI readings are classified as follows: 0-50 is good, 51-100 is satisfactory, 101-200 is moderate, 201-300 is poor, 301-400 is very poor, and 401-500 is severe. Regarding the rain forecast for northwest India, including Delhi, the IMD predicts light to moderate rainfall over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and East Rajasthan. Scattered to widespread rainfall is expected over Jammu, Kashmir, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, and West Rajasthan during the next seven days. This forecast is attributed to the active monsoon and the presence of two cyclonic circulations over northeast Rajasthan and its vicinity, and southeast Uttar Pradesh and its vicinity. The Southwest monsoon has been causing significant disruptions across the country since it regained momentum towards the end of June, resulting in Delhi’s highest single-day June rainfall in 88 years. Mumbai also experienced similar conditions, while Wayanad in Kerala suffered two major landslides, pushing the death toll to over 400. Earlier this month, the IMD projected that monsoon rains in August would be normal, ranging from 94% to 106% of the long-period average. This prediction is based on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) returning to neutral conditions, with the cooler phase, known as La Niña, expected to develop in the second half of the monsoon season (August-September). La Niña, characterized by cooler sea surface temperatures, occurs every 3-5 years, sometimes in consecutive years, leading to increased rainfall and distinct weather patterns, which can result in floods.
