A recent poll from the New York Times and Siena College unveils a potential split-ticket voting trend in Arizona, with voters possibly choosing former President Donald Trump for the presidency while opting for Democrat Ruben Gallego for the Senate seat. This intriguing scenario is driven by the candidates’ unique appeal to a specific demographic: Latino voters, particularly those with lower income levels and limited college education.
Trump’s enduring strength among voters without a college degree is well-documented. His ability to connect with non-white voters, including Latinos, has been a cornerstone of his political success. This appeal is evident in the latest poll, indicating a significant number of Latinos are leaning towards Trump.
Meanwhile, Gallego has been diligently courting Latino voters, demonstrating a strategic understanding of their importance within the Democratic coalition. His campaign recently hosted a Cinco de Mayo watch party for a boxing match featuring Mexican champion Canelo Álvarez, drawing a large crowd of Latino Arizonans and their families. This event, along with other targeted outreach efforts, has positioned Gallego as a relatable candidate within this influential demographic.
Experts like Melissa Michelson, dean of arts and sciences and political science professor at Menlo College, believe that Latinos may be drawn to both Trump and Gallego due to shared racial identity and party affiliation. Michelson highlights the importance of shared group identity in voting decisions, noting that Latinos often tend to vote for Latino candidates.
Furthermore, the endorsements from the Arizona Police Association (APA) for both Trump and Gallego could further fuel this split-ticket voting pattern. This is a significant development, particularly given the APA’s history of backing Trump and Republican candidates. The union’s decision to endorse Gallego, despite backing Trump and Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake in the past, suggests a shift in their political strategy.
Republican strategist Kevin Madden, recognizing the unique nature of these races, emphasizes the importance of candidate-specific strategies. Gallego’s focused efforts to connect with male Latino voters, including his Cinco de Mayo watch party, demonstrate this tailored approach.
The potential for a split-ticket result in Arizona, with Trump winning the presidency and Gallego securing the Senate seat, is a noteworthy development given the recent decline in split-ticket voting. While gender considerations may play a role in some voters’ decisions, particularly in the Senate race where both candidates are women, racial and party affiliations are often more significant factors in the voting process. This outcome could signal a complex political landscape in Arizona, where voter preferences defy traditional partisan divides.
