The Pacific Islands region is caught in the crossfire of a growing strategic rivalry between China and the United States, with both countries seeking to expand their influence and leverage the region’s strategic importance. This intensifying competition, according to a recent report by the Lowy Institute, a prominent Australian think-tank, threatens to disrupt the political and security landscape of the Pacific, potentially straining the unity and stability of the region.
The Pacific Islands are strategically valuable due to their geographic location, providing key access points for monitoring and controlling naval movements across the vast Pacific Ocean. This strategic significance has attracted the attention of major global powers, leading to a scramble for influence and control. The report highlights the “indefatigable” efforts of China in its outreach and activities within the region, which are being matched by the United States and its allies, particularly Australia and Japan.
This escalating competition has inadvertently empowered Pacific Island nations, who are now leveraging the rivalry to maximize development benefits. The report states that Pacific Island countries have become “diplomatic price-setters”, using the competition to secure better deals on trade, labor mobility, digital connectivity, and climate resilience.
However, the report cautions that this “unbridled strategic rivalry” poses significant risks to good governance and transparency within the Pacific Islands. The intense competition risks overwhelming the small states with competing interests and priorities from donor countries, potentially distracting from local needs and priorities.
China has emerged as a major player in the Pacific, significantly investing in infrastructure development, including ports, airports, and telecommunications. Furthermore, China has shown interest in expanding its role in military, policing, digital connectivity, and media sectors within the region.
The vulnerability of Pacific Island nations to climate change has also become a point of leverage, with external partners offering assistance and aid in exchange for access and influence. The report warns that this could lead to a scramble among powerful nations to be the first to respond to natural disasters, potentially involving securing access to ports, airstrips, and maritime routes.
In preparation for the Pacific Islands Forum Leaders meeting in Tonga, which commenced on Monday, China has hosted several Pacific Island leaders for extended visits to the North Asian country. Fiji’s Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Tuesday, even as Fiji’s government signed a deal with the US Peace Corps for software engineering recruitment and announced a $200 million investment from Google in a data center to support a new subsea cable. Leaders from Vanuatu and Solomon Islands also visited China in July.
The report concludes that Pacific Island countries are asserting their interests more assertively in international engagements, demanding better deals and seeking greater support for their priorities. However, the ongoing rivalry between China and the US poses a significant challenge to the stability and sustainable development of the Pacific Islands. The region faces the difficult task of navigating this complex geopolitical landscape while safeguarding its own interests and preserving its unique identity.
