The ongoing war in Sudan has claimed far more lives than initially reported, with new findings revealing a staggering death toll that underscores the severity of the conflict. A report by researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine’s Sudan Research Group estimates that over 61,000 people have died in Khartoum state during the first 14 months of the war, a number much higher than previous estimates. This new study, published on Wednesday, shows that the majority of these deaths have been indirect, caused by starvation, disease, and the collapse of healthcare systems, overshadowing the direct violence of the conflict.
A New Approach to Estimating Deaths
To arrive at a more accurate death toll, the researchers employed an innovative “capture-recapture” methodology, a technique typically used in ecological studies. This approach was adapted for use in conflict zones, such as during Sudan’s 2019 pro-democracy protests and the COVID-19 pandemic. By cross-referencing data from a variety of independent sources—including social media surveys and community-based reporting—the researchers were able to identify discrepancies in reporting, helping to pinpoint unrecorded deaths. This method is particularly effective in conflict zones where official death tolls are often underreported or difficult to verify.
According to the study, the 3 data sources utilized in the research captured only 5% of the estimated total deaths in Khartoum state, illustrating the significant underreporting of casualties. This finding suggests that other regions of Sudan, especially those hardest hit by the conflict, may have experienced similarly or even more severe death tolls.
Underreporting and its Consequences
While the researchers acknowledge that their method assumes all deaths have an equal chance of being recorded, they also note the likelihood that well-known individuals or those who died violently may have been more likely to be reported. Nonetheless, experts like Paul Spiegel, head of the Center for Humanitarian Health at John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, have lauded the study as groundbreaking for its effort to bring attention to the true scale of the conflict’s devastating toll on human life.
The Humanitarian Crisis Worsens
The war in Sudan, which erupted between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has triggered one of the world’s most dire humanitarian crises. Nearly 25 million people—half the country’s population—are in urgent need of humanitarian aid. The United Nations has called the crisis the world’s biggest hunger emergency, with millions of people facing famine, particularly in displacement camps.
In Khartoum, eyewitnesses report a disturbing surge in makeshift graves, with families struggling to bury their loved ones due to the ongoing violence and destruction of traditional burial grounds. Hospitals like al-Shuhada in Bahri are overwhelmed with patients suffering from malnutrition, malaria, cholera, and dengue fever, while healthcare services have collapsed under the weight of the war.
Disease, Famine, and Collapsing Healthcare
The Sudanese American Physicians Association (SAPA), which has been providing healthcare across Sudan, corroborates the findings of the study. SAPA reports that the actual death toll could be even higher due to the weakened immunity caused by malnutrition, which makes people more susceptible to easily preventable diseases.
While both the Sudanese Armed Forces and the RSF have blamed each other for the escalating death toll, the report underscores the war’s indirect consequences. Hunger, disease, and the destruction of the healthcare system are now among the leading causes of death, with vulnerable groups—such as pregnant women and children—bearing the brunt of the crisis.
Global Attention Needed
As the war continues to devastate Sudan, the international community must remain vigilant and increase efforts to provide humanitarian assistance to mitigate the crisis. The collapse of healthcare infrastructure, the worsening food insecurity, and the increased death toll require urgent intervention to prevent further loss of life and to support those in need.
The scale of the disaster unfolding in Sudan demands that the world take action. Only through increased humanitarian aid, pressure on conflicting parties to respect ceasefires, and international cooperation can the suffering in Sudan be alleviated.
