Sun Tzu’s *The Art of War*, a timeless guide on military strategy, emphasizes the delicate balance between offense and defense, the importance of adaptability, and the significance of psychological warfare. Russia’s recent military strategy in Ukraine, however, has shown how a disproportionate focus on offense can lead to defensive weaknesses, which Ukraine is now skillfully exploiting.
One of Sun Tzu’s key principles is to avoid overextension, as he warns, “He who is prudent and lies in wait for an enemy who is not, will be victorious.” Russia’s initial military campaign, characterized by a rapid offensive push into Ukraine, clearly demonstrates this overextension. Their strategy involved a multi-front assault, aiming for quick and decisive victories by overwhelming Ukrainian defenses through sheer force. The initial goal was to capture key cities like Kyiv and swiftly destabilize the Ukrainian government. However, this strategy failed to account for the resilience of Ukrainian forces and the logistical challenges associated with sustaining such a broad offensive.
As the conflict dragged on, Russia found itself in a precarious position. Their forces were spread thin, supply lines were overextended, and their ability to effectively defend their own territory was compromised. This situation perfectly exemplifies Sun Tzu’s warning: neglecting flexibility and overextending one’s reach can lead to unforeseen vulnerabilities.
Another critical maxim from *The Art of War* emphasizes the importance of thorough preparation, particularly in defense: “The general who wins the battle makes many calculations in his temple before the battle is fought.” Russia’s defensive posture along its borders, especially in regions like Kursk, appears inadequate in the face of Ukrainian counteroffensives. Recent developments, such as the deep incursion of Ukrainian troops up to 30 kilometers into Russian territory, highlight the vulnerability of Russia’s defense, which was heavily focused on offense. The fact that Russia only began constructing new defensive lines after Ukrainian forces had advanced underscores a reactive, rather than proactive, approach to defense. Sun Tzu would argue that Russia failed to anticipate this threat and did not adequately prepare its borders for the possibility of such incursions. The evacuation of thousands of civilians from border areas and the hasty reinforcement of defenses point to a lack of foresight in protecting critical infrastructure and territory.
Sun Tzu also emphasizes the psychological aspect of warfare, stating that “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” Russia’s initial strategy relied heavily on psychological intimidation, using overwhelming force to cow Ukraine into submission. However, as the conflict has progressed, the psychological tables have turned. Ukraine’s recent incursions into Russian territory are not merely military actions; they are strategic psychological maneuvers designed to undermine Russian morale and create a sense of insecurity within Russia itself.
The incursion into the Kursk region has forced Russia to confront the reality that its own territory is not invulnerable. This has significant implications for Russian morale, impacting both the civilian population and the military. The evacuation of tens of thousands of civilians and the need to divert resources to defend the homeland detracts from Russia’s image of strength and control, which is crucial for maintaining public support and troop morale. This aligns with Sun Tzu’s belief that disrupting the enemy’s confidence can be as powerful as any physical victory.
Sun Tzu advises, “Attack where they are unprepared, appear where you are not expected.” Ukraine’s strategic incursions into Russian territory seem to be a direct application of this principle. By launching operations in regions like Kursk, Ukraine forces Russia to spread its resources thinner, defending a wider area while still trying to maintain its offensive in eastern Ukraine. This strategic move stretches Russian forces, complicates their operational planning, and forces them to allocate resources to defense that could otherwise be used in offensive operations. This development directly connects to recent Russian advances in eastern Ukraine, where the Kremlin’s forces have been making incremental gains. By forcing Russia to redeploy its resources, Ukraine seeks to relieve pressure on its own defenses and create new opportunities for counteroffensives. This aligns with Sun Tzu’s strategy of exploiting the enemy’s weaknesses by forcing them into a position where they must fight on multiple fronts, thereby diluting their effectiveness.
Sun Tzu also notes the importance of understanding the broader context of a conflict, including alliances and external support. Russia’s recent reliance on munitions from North Korea highlights a critical issue: its supply lines and resources are being strained. The need to turn to external sources for military supplies suggests that Russia’s initial calculations underestimated the duration and intensity of the conflict. This reliance on external support can be seen as a vulnerability that Ukraine and its allies may seek to exploit further by targeting Russian supply chains and exposing the fragility of its logistical networks.
In conclusion, Russia’s excessive focus on offense at the expense of a balanced defense has led to significant strategic vulnerabilities. Ukraine’s recent incursions into Russian territory exemplify how a well-executed strategy, aligned with Sun Tzu’s teachings, can exploit these weaknesses. By forcing Russia to divert resources, destabilising its internal security, and challenging its psychological dominance, Ukraine is effectively turning the tables on an overextended adversary.
