As the 2024 presidential election approaches, a wave of legal challenges is expected. However, experts believe that the U.S. Supreme Court, despite its conservative majority, is unlikely to play a pivotal role in deciding the election’s outcome.
Election lawyers stress that the Supreme Court typically gets involved in post-election litigation only for exceptionally close races. Jason Torchinsky, a partner at Holtzman Vogel, notes, “Historically, the court has only been decisive in cases where the vote margin is extremely narrow.” For the court to intervene, there must be “significant and provable fraud allegations or serious violations in how elections are conducted or votes are processed,” according to Greg Teufle, founder of OGC Law.
Both Republicans and Democrats are gearing up with election-related lawsuits ahead of November 5th. The 2022 amendment to the Electoral Count Reform Act (ECRA) aims to streamline potential litigation and clarify the vice president’s role during the joint session of Congress. The ECRA establishes a faster process for challenging election results, allowing candidates to appeal directly to the Supreme Court.
Despite this streamlined approach, experts remain skeptical about the court’s willingness to intervene. John Hardin Young, counsel at Sandler Reiff, points out that the justices are cautious about stepping in unless absolutely necessary, particularly given the conservative majority. “The Supreme Court’s majority may be reluctant to intervene unless they see evidence of process corruption or rule violations, as they are sensitive to maintaining democratic integrity,” he explains.
While the ECRA seeks to simplify procedures, Jeff Weiss, a professor at New York Law School, warns that the act itself could become a target for litigation if its application is seen as “improper, unfair, or unlawful.” Both parties might challenge the constitutional validity of the laws and procedures involved if they are unhappy with the election count process.
The legal landscape for the 2024 election remains intricate, and while the Supreme Court’s conservative leanings are notable, experts believe the court will only intervene if overwhelming evidence of fraud or systemic irregularities arises. As the election unfolds, legal challenges will likely persist, but the ultimate results will hinge on voter turnout and the ballot box.
