The political landscape in New York’s Long Island is heating up as the 2024 election approaches, with two key swing districts seeing fierce battles between Republican incumbents and Democratic challengers. These races are crucial as they could have a significant impact on the national political landscape and potentially determine which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives.
In the 1st Congressional District, which encompasses most of Suffolk County on eastern Long Island, Republican Rep. Nick LaLota appears to be holding a slight advantage. According to a recent Newsday/Siena College poll, LaLota, who is seeking re-election, has garnered 47% support, compared to 44% for his Democratic challenger, former CNN anchor John Avlon. The district has a history of supporting former President Donald Trump, and Avlon’s residency in the district has been a point of contention during the campaign.
However, in the 4th Congressional District, which encompasses central and southern Nassau County, the race is considerably tighter and tilted towards the Democrat. The same poll found that 53% of likely voters in the district support Democrat challenger Laura Gillen, a former Hempstead Town Supervisor, while only 41% support incumbent Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito. This is a rematch from the 2022 election, where D’Esposito narrowly defeated Gillen by four points.
The close contests in these two districts underscore the importance of New York’s suburban areas in the national political landscape. These suburban areas, which saw a shift towards Republicans during the 2022 midterm elections, are again becoming key battlegrounds in the 2024 election. The outcome of these races could determine which party controls the U.S. House and have a significant impact on the direction of the country.
Beyond these two districts, the region is experiencing a flurry of closely contested House races. Eleven districts within a 90-mile radius of Manhattan are expected to be among the most closely contested races nationwide, potentially deciding the balance of power in the House. The region, starting with the Long Island suburbs, stretches through Connecticut, New York’s Hudson River Valley, and eastern Pennsylvania, before looping back into New Jersey. While Trump struggled in this area outside of New York City in 2020, Republicans made gains in the 2022 midterms. With the upcoming election, these races are sure to capture national attention and potentially shape the direction of the country.
