In a dramatic escalation of the decade-long Syrian Civil War, opposition forces have launched a major offensive against the regime of Bashar al-Assad, marking the most significant military action in the conflict since 2020. This audacious assault, dubbed ‘Deterrence of Aggression’ by the opposition, commenced near Aleppo on Wednesday, resulting in the capture of strategic territory and inflicting a substantial blow to Assad’s forces.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a UK-based monitoring group, confirmed the offensive, reporting the seizure of at least 13 villages, two towns, and the crucial ‘Base 46’ – a large military base in western Aleppo. CNN and The New York Times corroborated these reports, citing opposition claims of capturing significant weaponry and tanks from Assad’s regime. The swift and decisive gains have sent shockwaves through the region, signifying a potential turning point in the protracted conflict.
This resurgence of opposition activity is attributed to several key factors. Firstly, a significant investment in resources and training by groups such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Al-Qaeda affiliate, has bolstered their capabilities and significantly leveled the playing field. Charles Lister, Director of the Middle East Institute’s Syria and Counterterrorism programs, highlighted the unprecedented reach of the offensive, noting that opposition forces managed to advance to within 4-5 kilometers of Aleppo – a distance that would have previously resulted in a swift regime counter-offensive. The successful push, he stressed, marks a profound shift in the balance of power.
Secondly, the weakening of Assad’s allies plays a crucial role. Iran-backed militias and Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shia Islamist political party and militant group, have been significantly hampered by relentless Israeli airstrikes in recent months. Their diminished capacity to support Assad’s regime has left a critical vulnerability, exploited effectively by the opposition forces. Reports from Reuters suggest that the offensive has brought opposition fighters to the outskirts of the Shia towns of Nubl and Zahra, areas with a substantial Hezbollah presence, further emphasizing the scale of the advance.
The conflict, which erupted in 2011 with pro-democracy protests against the Assad family’s decades-long authoritarian rule, has claimed an estimated 300,000 lives, according to UN estimates from 2022. The current offensive underscores the enduring volatility of the situation and raises serious concerns about the potential for further escalation and humanitarian consequences. The international community is closely watching this significant development, with the potential for the renewed conflict to dramatically reshape the geopolitical landscape of the region. The long-standing ceasefire brokered by Russia and Turkey in 2020 appears to have been decisively shattered, leaving the future of Syria once again uncertain.
