Coming into Monday’s series opener between the Arizona Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals, the two teams appear to be moving in opposite directions. Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt has shown signs of improvement, while Cardinals starter Lance Lynn has been performing above his expected metrics. Looking at the underlying numbers, Pfaadt’s 3.57 xFIP and increasing ground ball and strikeout rates suggest he should improve on his 5.32 ERA. Lynn, on the other hand, has benefited from a low .241 BABIP and an unsustainably high strand rate, which could lead to regression. Overall, the Diamondbacks have a slight edge offensively with a higher wRC+, better plate discipline, and a more potent xSLG. Defensively, the Diamondbacks were one of the best teams in the league last season and are expected to be better than the Cardinals in that regard in 2023. With Arizona holding several advantages not reflected in the current betting prices, the Diamondbacks offer value on the moneyline.