The Fed’s recent rate cut, while good news for the economy, doesn’t necessarily guarantee a surge in the stock market. History shows that rate cut cycles, while usually beneficial for stocks, often don’t lead to immediate gains. We analyze the historical relationship between rate cuts, the yield curve, and stock market performance to understand why investors should remain cautious and vigilant despite the recent Fed action.
Bank of America has identified key dates leading up to the November US Presidential election that could significantly impact the stock market, with the day after the election being the most volatile. The bank’s analysis, based on options prices, suggests potential fluctuations in the S&P 500 index due to key economic reports and corporate earnings announcements.
New construction of single-family homes in the US experienced a significant jump in August, fueled by declining mortgage rates and the anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. This positive trend suggests a resurgence in the housing market, potentially indicating economic resilience.
While traditional economic indicators like stock market performance and unemployment rates provide valuable insights, less conventional metrics can offer a unique perspective on the economy’s health. This article explores eight surprising and often overlooked indicators, ranging from bike fatality rates to baked bean sales, that can shed light on economic trends and potential downturns.
US stock markets displayed mixed performance on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 posted gains. Key economic indicators showed moderate growth, while individual stock performances were driven by company earnings and announcements. European and Asian markets also saw positive trends.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, has risen more than expected in March, indicating persisting inflationary pressures and pushing back expectations of a near-term rate cut by the Fed.
Private inventories have experienced a significant increase according to data released yesterday, leading analysts to speculate that this may have been influenced by frontrunning activities.
Australia’s consumer price index (CPI) fell to 3.6% in the first quarter of 2023, down from 4.1% in the previous quarter. However, this was above market forecasts of 3.4% and still outside the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range of 2-3%. The monthly CPI indicator accelerated to 3.5% in March from 3.4% in February. The monthly CPI excluding volatile items and travel rose to 4.1% in March from 3.9% in February. The RBA’s Trimmed Mean CPI, a measure of underlying inflation, increased by 4.0% year-on-year, the slowest rise in two years but still outside the target range.
CNBC’s ‘Mad Money’ host Jim Cramer has discussed potential signs of an impending economic slowdown and its potential impact on the financial markets. Cramer highlighted decelerating growth in economic indicators such as jobs and wages, as well as concerns about the housing market.
U.S. stocks traded higher towards the end of trading on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 gaining more than 1%, while the Dow and NASDAQ also rose. General Motors Company reported better-than-expected earnings for its fiscal first quarter, with quarterly sales growth of 7.6% year-on-year. Communication services and materials sectors were the leading and lagging sectors, respectively. In commodity news, oil traded up 1.8% while gold traded down 0.2%. European and Asian markets closed mostly higher, with the eurozone’s STOXX 600 rising 1.09% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 gaining 0.30%. Sales of new single-family houses jumped 8.8% in March, while the S&P Global services PMI and composite PMI fell to 50.9 and 50.9, respectively.
