Polymarket, the cryptocurrency-based prediction market platform known for its accurate presidential election predictions, is making a comeback in the US market. Following a successful run with offshore users, CEO Shayne Coplan has announced plans to re-enter the US, signaling a potential resurgence of political prediction markets in the country.
Kalshi, a regulated election betting platform, has seen explosive growth, surpassing $200 million in trades and outperforming Cash App in U.S. finance app rankings. CEO Tarek Mansour highlights the platform’s transparency and user-driven probabilities, which differentiate it from traditional polls and offshore betting platforms. The platform’s success follows a court ruling allowing Kalshi to offer election contracts, opening the door for other major players like Robinhood and Interactive Brokers to enter the market. Kalshi’s platform stands out with its diverse betting options and liquidity, enabling users to place large bets without influencing market prices.
Robinhood is adding a new layer of excitement to the 2024 US Presidential election with the launch of event contracts for both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. These contracts, accessible to a select group of Robinhood users, allow traders to bet on the outcome of the election. The move comes as the race heats up, with polls suggesting a tight contest and prediction markets favoring Trump.
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan has addressed concerns about the platform’s influence on the 2024 U.S. presidential election betting market, emphasizing its non-partisan nature and role as an alternative data source. Coplan responded to a New York Times article highlighting the platform’s predictions, particularly those favoring Donald Trump, and accusations of potential market manipulation. He stressed that Polymarket is a transparent, peer-to-peer marketplace where users set the prices, not the operator, and any perceived influence is a result of user actions, not platform manipulation.
A prominent whale trader, identified as French national ‘Fredi9999’, has placed over $52 million in bets on various Trump-related outcomes on Polymarket, including the upcoming U.S. election. This has raised eyebrows in the trading community, particularly due to Polymarket’s ban on U.S. users since 2022.
Jim Bianco, President of Bianco Research, has defended the integrity of election betting markets, arguing they are not manipulated and accurately reflect available information. He compares data from these markets to polling aggregators and election models, indicating a close race with Donald Trump potentially gaining momentum. Bianco cautions that while these markets suggest a tight contest, unforeseen events could still influence the outcome.
A Polymarket trader, operating under the pseudonym Fredi9999 and four other aliases, has poured over $52 million into bets on Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 election. This massive investment, suspected to be controlled by a single entity, has ignited speculation about the trader’s motives, ranging from hedging against potential losses to manipulating public opinion.
Rostin Behnam, chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has called on Congress to address the regulation of cryptocurrency and election betting, highlighting the growing concern surrounding platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. Behnam stated that the CFTC considers election contracts illegal and that the agency faces challenges in policing these activities. The call for congressional intervention follows the rise of election betting platforms and the recent lifting of a ban on Kalshi by an appeals court.
Election betting odds for the 2024 US Presidential race have shifted, with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris now tied at 49% each according to data from Polymarket. This shift comes after a significant increase in trading volume, with both candidates attracting substantial investments from prominent traders.
A federal judge has ruled in favor of prediction-market startup Kalshi, allowing them to offer contracts for betting on the outcome of congressional elections. This decision could pave the way for legalized betting on U.S. elections, bringing a new dimension to political engagement and analysis.
