Q1 GDP Data: Strong Inflation, Weaker Equities

The release of Q1 GDP data has sparked market volatility, with the US dollar strengthening and equities weakening due to elevated inflation numbers. Goldman Sachs notes that growth was not as weak as initial estimates, however, government spending slowed more than anticipated. The pricing data in the PCE report caught the market off guard, with core PCE projections indicating a higher-than-expected rise of 0.48% compared to the consensus of 0.3%. Goldman Sachs remains cautious, forecasting a more modest increase of 0.33%. The PCE data is scheduled to be released on Friday.

Investment News: Strong Economic Data and Solid Q1 Performance

– Despite rising interest rates, the US economy exhibited remarkable strength in Q1, with solid consumer spending and low unemployment.
– Equity markets moved higher in anticipation of a Goldilocks scenario, leading to a 10.6% gain in the S&P 500® Index (SP500, SPX) for the best start to a year since 2019.
– Technology stocks, particularly those benefiting from AI, drove market gains, with Nvidia (NVDA) and Spotify (SPOT) among the top performers.
– Despite initial rate cut expectations, multiple inflation readings surprised to the upside, leading to a scaling back of expectations for Fed rate cuts.
– Developed market international stocks had a solid start to the year, led by Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index which set record highs.
– Emerging markets underperformed, with China’s continued underperformance as a primary factor.

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