The Forex market is booming in South Asia, particularly among millennials in countries like India, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Economic growth, technological advancements, and a growing awareness of global investment opportunities are driving this trend. This article explores the factors behind the rise of Forex trading in South Asia, the economic outlook for the region, and the role of platforms like Octa in facilitating this growth.
The USDCHF pair has faced support at its 100-bar moving average on the four-hour chart on both Tuesday and today. This moving average will be a key indicator for downside movements going forward. On the upside, highs reached new weekly highs on Wednesday and Thursday, creating a swing area ceiling between 0.91469 and 0.91558. Breaking above this range would signal a bullish bias. The 100 and 200-hour moving averages lie between 0.9117 and 0.9126, providing short-term support for the pair.
The forex market has a light calendar ahead, with ANZAC Day being a national holiday in Australia. However, there are a few key events to note:
1. USD/JPY has risen above its latest resistance level of 155.00, prompting expectations of verbal intervention from Japanese officials. This intervention could create opportunities for dip buying.
2. Markets in Australia are closed for ANZAC Day, which commemorates the Australian and New Zealand Army Corps.
EUR/USD has pulled back to retest the 1.07 zone, where the 38.2% level and the red 21 EMA meet. Sellers may step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop into new lows. Alternatively, buyers will want to see a break above the 1.08 handle to place bullish bets. On the 4-hour chart, a potential bearish pattern has formed, but it needs confirmation by breaking below the lower trendline. This would strengthen the resistance zone along with the upper trendline. Sellers aim for a break below the lower trendline, while buyers seek a breakout to invalidate the bearish setup and rally to 1.08. The 1-hour chart reveals another critical zone around 1.0690, where the price has faced resistance and support. The red 21 EMA provides additional dynamic support. Buyers may step in below this level to target a breakout and rally to 1.08, while sellers seek a break below to increase bearish bets towards 1.0640.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) has experienced a surge in value, reaching a daily high of 154.94. This notable increase has not gone unnoticed by Japanese authorities, who are monitoring the situation closely. Market analysts believe that the JPY’s rally could potentially overshadow other market developments, making it the primary focus of trading activity today.
UBS has adjusted its outlook for the USD/JPY currency pair, attributing the change to the robust performance of the US dollar. The firm has increased its quarter-end predictions for the pair to ¥155 for June 2024, followed by ¥152, ¥148, and ¥145 for the subsequent quarters through March 2025. This revision comes as the market recalibrates its expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which have been scaled back significantly. Additionally, UBS notes that short positions in the yen have reached extreme levels, contributing to the dislocation of the USD/JPY pair.
USDCAD has retreated from the one-year range top, offering better risk-to-reward setups for both buyers and sellers. Buyers may target 1.3620, while sellers aim for 1.3225. On the 4-hour chart, a bearish setup has formed with a downward trendline and 21-EMA, suggesting a drop to 1.3620. The 1-hour chart aligns with the bearish outlook, with Fibonacci levels supporting the downtrend. Key economic data releases this week include US Flash PMIs, Canadian Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims, and US PCE report.
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